A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain

Tianjun Zhou , Xiaolong Chen , Bo Wu , Zhun Guo , Yong Sun , Liwei Zou , Wenmin Man , Lixia Zhang , Chao He

Engineering ›› 2017, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (5) : 773 -778.

PDF (1317KB)
Engineering ›› 2017, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (5) : 773 -778. DOI: 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.05.018
Research
Research

A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain

Author information +
History +
PDF (1317KB)

Abstract

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene (MP) and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIP5, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change projections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.

Keywords

East Asian monsoon / Western North Pacific climate / El Niño-Southern Oscillation / Past climate change / Climate projection / Coupled climate model / Regional climate model

Cite this article

Download citation ▾
Tianjun Zhou, Xiaolong Chen, Bo Wu, Zhun Guo, Yong Sun, Liwei Zou, Wenmin Man, Lixia Zhang, Chao He. A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain. Engineering, 2017, 3(5): 773-778 DOI:10.1016/J.ENG.2017.05.018

登录浏览全文

4963

注册一个新账户 忘记密码

References

Funding

()

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2017 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

AI Summary AI Mindmap
PDF (1317KB)

1553

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

AI思维导图

/