产业发展遵循着客观的周期性规律，经历从技术研发成熟、制造能力成熟，再到新商品市场完善成熟的必然过程。本研究在新兴产业发展成熟规律的基础上，结合系统工程和数据决策方法，提出了产业成熟度的理论及评价方法，以一致、规范、量化的方法评价技术、制造、产品、市场和产业的发展状态，通过综合集成第三方评审专家的评价和判断得出产业发展状况的综合评价结果，并对“十三五”末（2020年）的产业方向进行了预测。以中国工程院重点课题“‘十三五’战略性新兴产业培育与发展规划研究”的材料领域为例，运用产业成熟度评价与预测产业发展趋势，客观地分析产业制约要素，进而有针对性地提出培育与发展政策建议。产业成熟度是分析和评价产业发展状态的有效工具，具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。

Development of an industry follows an objective cyclical law that is an inevitable progression from technological and manufacturing maturity to a developed market for new products. Based on research into the cyclical law of emerging industries combined with system engineering and data decision making, this thesis uses the industrial maturity levels theory and assessment method to assess the maturities of technology, manufacture, product, market, and industry in a consistent, standardized, and quantitative evaluation method. Comprehensive evaluation results are obtained through the integration of evaluation and judgment data from experts. Finally, this method predicts the emerging industrial trend at the end of 13th Five-Year Plan in 2020. This paper uses the material field in the Chinese Academy of Engineering’s important fund subject of research on the cultivation and development planning of China’s strategic emerging industry in the 13th Five-Year Plan as an example of using industrial maturity levels to assess and predict industrial development trends, to analyze their restrictions, and then to propose targeted policy recommendations.