中国环境工程科技2035技术预见研究

但智钢, 史菲菲, 王志增, 王辉锋, 张裴雷, 郝吉明, 段宁

中国工程科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1) : 80-86.

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PDF(686 KB)
中国工程科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1) : 80-86. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.01.012
专题研究

中国环境工程科技2035技术预见研究

作者信息 +

Technology Foresight Research on China’s Environmental Engineering Science and Technology to 2035

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摘要

技术预见是制定科技发展战略和科技政策的重要基础,德尔菲调查是技术预见中最常用的方法。本研究通过文献分析、专家建议、会议讨论等方法,从大气污染防治、水污染防治、固体废弃物污染防治与资源化、土壤污染防治、生态保护与恢复、环境监测预警与风险控制、资源利用与清洁生产7个子领域提出我国环境工程领域的45项备选技术。根据德尔菲法的调查结果,初步筛选出2035年我国环境工程科技发展的关键技术、共性技术以及颠覆性技术,分析了技术实现时间、发展水平与制约因素,为未来20年我国环境工程科技发展战略和目标的制定提供参考。

Abstract

The Delphi method is the most common method of technology foresight, which is a significant basis for establishing development strategies and policies of science and technology. This study proposes 45 alternative technologies in the field of environmental engineering science and technology through a literature survey, experts' advice, and discussion meetings. These technologies relate to air pollution prevention and control; water pollution prevention and control; soil pollution prevention and control; solid waste pollution prevention, control, and utilization; ecological protection and restoration; environmental monitoring, early warning, and risk control; resource utilization and cleaner production. Based on results that were obtained according to the Delphi method, this research analyzes the realization time, R&D level, and restriction factors for the key technologies, common technologies, and disruptive technologies that were determined for 2035. This study provides a reference for establishing development strategies and objectives for China’s environmental engineering science and technology over the next 20 years.

关键词

环境工程科技 / 技术预见 / 德尔菲调查 / 关键技术 / 共性技术 / 颠覆性技术

Keywords

environmental engineering science and technology / technology foresight / Delphi method / key technology / common technology / disruptive technology

引用本文

导出引用
但智钢, 史菲菲, 王志增. 中国环境工程科技2035技术预见研究. 中国工程科学. 2017, 19(1): 80-86 https://doi.org/10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.01.012

参考文献

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Ben R M. Matching social needs and technological capabilities: Research foresight and the implications for social sciences (paper presented at the OECD workshop on social sciences and innova-tion) [Z]. Tokyo: United Nations University, 2000.
[2]
袁志彬, 穆荣平, 陈锋. 中国未来20 年资源与环境技术预见研究[J]. 中国人口 · 资源与环境, 2008, 18 (6): 157–161.
[3]
中国未来20 年技术预见研究组. 中国未来20 年技术预见 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008.
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陈德棉, 申期. 科学技术评估和预测引论 [M]. 合肥: 安徽科学技术出版社, 1996.
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Linstone H A, Turoff M. The Delphi method-techniques and appli-cations [M]. New York: Addison -Wesley, 2001.
基金
中国工程院咨询项目“中国工程科技2035发展战略研究”(2015-ZD-14)
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