
引发产业变革的颠覆性技术内涵与遴选研究
孙永福, 王礼恒, 孙棕檀, 王崑声, 胡良元, 崔剑, 徐源, 康熙瞳
中国工程科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (5) : 9-16.
引发产业变革的颠覆性技术内涵与遴选研究
Connotation and Selection of Disruptive Technologies that Lead Industrial Change
引发产业变革的颠覆性技术具有技术突破性、产品替代性、市场广泛性与产业变革性特征,会对社会发展和人民生活产生深远的影响。本文首先从产业和技术角度出发,提出引发产业变革的颠覆性技术内涵;其次,建立相应的指标评价体系;最后,通过两轮问卷调查,以定性和定量相结合的方式,遴选出20多项引发产业变革的颠覆性技术,从而为进一步研究颠覆性技术与产业变革间的规律、开展技术预测工作提供支撑。
Disruptive technologies that lead industrial change have many characteristics, including technological breakthrough, product substitution, market universality, and industrial transformation, all of which have profound impact on social development and people's lives. First, from the industry and technology perspectives, this article proposes the connotation and selection of disruptive technologies that lead industrial change. Next, the corresponding index evaluation system is established. Lastly, through two rounds of questionnaire surveys utilizing qualitative and quantitative methods, this article selects approximately 20 disruptive technologies that are currently leading the industrial change; subsequent analysis provides support for further study on the law between disruptive technology and the industrial revolution, as well as carrying out technical forecasting.
产业变革 / 颠覆性技术 / 指标评价体系 / 遴选 / 调查问卷
industrial change / disruptive technologies / index evaluation system / selection / questionnaire survey
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