美国联邦政府机构技术预测工具应用态势分析

孙棕檀, 李云, 李浩悦, 特日格乐

中国工程科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (5) : 92-96.

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中国工程科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (5) : 92-96. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.05.016
他山之石

美国联邦政府机构技术预测工具应用态势分析

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Analysis on Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the U.S. Federal Government Agencies

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摘要

美国国防分析研究所发布的《美国联邦政府技术预测工具应用现状与潜在应用》研究报告对美国联邦政府机构技术预测工作开展现状进行了梳理,对联邦政府机构期望拥有的技术预测工具能力进行了分析。本文在此基础上,对联邦政府机构技术预测工具的应用态势进行了总结,为我国开发相应技术预测工具提供参考与借鉴。

Abstract

The report entitled Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the U.S. Federal Government released by the Institute for Defense Analyses summed up the current state and capabilities of technology forecasting tools desired by the U.S. federal government agencies. On the basis of this report, this paper summarizes the application of the technology forecasting tools of the U.S. federal government agencies, and provides reference for the development of corresponding technical forecasting tools in China.

关键词

美国联邦政府机构 / 技术预测工具 / 自动化

Keywords

U.S. federal government agencies / technology forecasting tools / automation

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孙棕檀, 李云, 李浩悦. 美国联邦政府机构技术预测工具应用态势分析. 中国工程科学. 2017, 19(5): 92-96 https://doi.org/10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.05.016

参考文献

[1]
Sylak-Glassman E J, Williams S R, Gupta N. Current and potential use of technology forecasting tools in the U.S. Federal Government [R]. Virginia: Institute for Defense Analyses, 2016.
[2]
National Research Council (NRC), Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies. Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies [R]. Washington DC: National Academies Press, 2010.
[3]
Wolfers J, Zitzewitz E. Prediction markets [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, 18(2): 107–126.
基金
中国工程院咨询项目“引发产业变革的重大颠覆性技术预测研究”(2016-ZD-12)
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