21 世纪以来，我国耕地面积、灌溉面积和粮食主产区不断向北方集中，北粮南运进一步加剧了水土资源错位，农业水资源胁迫度增加，黄河以北主产区地下水利用难以持续。为支撑国家粮食安全，提供合理的农业水资源基本保障，本文在系统梳理我国农业水资源形势、粮食生产与消费状况、粮食作物灌溉需求空间分布与适水种植区域等基础上，以满足未来粮食消费需求、不逾越用水总量控制红线为目标，倒逼灌溉规模和灌溉方式调整，采用定额法核算了2025 年、2030 年农田灌溉水资源需求阈值。结果表明：保障未来1×10⁹ 亩（1 亩≈ 666.667 m² ）高标准农田用水需求，须在强化节水条件下保障农 田灌溉基本用水底线 3.23×10¹¹ m³ ，开发利用非常规水源约 6.44×10⁹ m³ ；提出应以适水种植提高雨水的利用，强化工程节 水和农艺节水提高灌溉水的利用，增加非常规水利用和强化管理等为重点，建设节水高效的现代灌溉农业和集雨增效的现代 旱作农业战略举措。

Since the 21st century, the cultivated area, irrigated area, and main grain-producing zone have been continuously concentrated to the North of China, and the North-to-South grains transportation has further aggravated the dislocation of land resources and water resources, which leads to the increase of agricultural water resources stress, and the unsustainability of underground water in the main grain-producing zone to the north of the Yellow River. To ensure national food security and provide rational basic guarantees for agricultural water resources, based on the analysis of the agricultural water resources situation, the grain production and consumption, the spatial distribution characteristics of food crop irrigation water requirements, and the precipitation adapting cropping areas in China, the paper employed the irrigation quote method to calculate the minimum thresholds of farmland irrigation water requirements in 2025 and 2030 under the condition of the irrigation method adjusted and rational irrigation scale constrained by the grain consumption demand and the total water use control red line in future. The results show that, to meet the water demand for high-standard farmlands of 66.67×10⁶ hectares in the future, a bottom line of 3.23×10¹¹ m³ water for farmland irrigation should be guaranteed while strengthening water-saving conditions, and approximately 6.44×10⁹ m³ unconventional water should be exploited to supplement fresh water shortage. Strategic measures of establishing water-saving and high-efficiency modern irrigation farming and water-collecting and efficiency-improved dry farming systems are proposed. To this end, the following measures should be stressed: precipitation adapting cropping should be promoted to improve rainwater utilization efficiency, engineering and agronomic measures should be taken to increase the utilization efficiency of irrigation water, utilization of unconventional water resources should be increased, and water resource management should be enhanced.