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资源全球配置下的中国磷矿发展策略
Development Strategy of Phosphate Rock in China Under Global Allocation of Resources
本文通过“S”形生长曲线模型法预测未来中国对磷矿资源的需求，分高、低两种情形对我国未来磷矿需求进行了预测，预测数据表明2017—2050年中国磷矿石累计需求量约为2.2×109~2.7×109 t，国内资源能够满足需求。同时，通过资源与生产现状分析中国磷矿资源现状与需求之间的关系，分析表明中国磷矿产能严重过剩，以4.7%的资源供应全球超过50%的市场，开发强度过高，2050年后磷矿或将成为中国的短缺资源。应当未雨绸缪，在环境保护和资源开发协调的基础上通过严格控制国内产能和限产，并充分利用资源的全球化配置来开发国外资源，延长中国未来的磷矿资源持续供应，进而保障粮食安全。
In this paper, the sigmoid growth curve model is adopted to predict the future demand for phosphate rock resources in China under high- and low-demand scenarios. Data shows that the total demand for phosphate rocks in China will reach approximately 2.2-2.7 billion tons between 2017 and 2050. This demand can be met by domestic supply. At the same time, the relation between the status quo and demand of the phosphate rock resource is analyzed according to its current production status. Analysis shows that China’s phosphorus resources have a serious overcapacity. With 4.7% of the world’s phosphorus reserves, China is now supplying phosphorus rocks to more than 50% of the global market. The development intensity of China’s phosphorus rocks is too high. In this way, China’s phosphorus rock resources will become short after 2050. To guarantee a sustainable supply of China’s phosphate rock resources in future and thus ensure food security, China should exercise strict control over domestic production capacity and limit production, and make the best of the global allocation of resources to develop foreign resources.
磷矿 / 不可再生 / 磷肥 / 累计需求 / 短缺资源 /
phosphate rock / nonrenewable / phosphate fertilizer / / cumulative demand / shortage resource
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