
我国村镇未来发展的若干趋势判断
Development Trends of Villages and Towns in China
本文通过实地调研和大数据分析相结合的方式,探索我国村镇发展的当前特点及发展趋势。总体而言,预计我国村镇未来将延续三大发展趋势:一是城乡长期共存、农村适度集聚,小城镇在衰落时期正面临新的发展机遇;二是预计未来东中西部的城乡将以不同模式集聚,小城镇内部的分化趋势加剧;三是随着村镇产业的转型升级,新功能、新业态将进入乡村地区;四是随着乡村经济发展水平的持续提升,基本公共服务供给成为基层村镇建设的重点,并进一步影响村镇空间格局的整合重构。
This paper attempts to explore the current characteristics and development trends of villages and towns in China through field research and large data analysis. Generally speaking, it is expected that China's villages and towns will continue three major development trends. First, urban and rural areas will coexist for a long time, with moderate rural agglomeration, and small towns are facing new development opportunities when experiencing decline. Second, it is expected that the urban and rural areas in the eastern, central, and western regions will agglomerate in different modes, and the differentiation trend within small towns will intensify. Third, with the transformation and upgrading of rural industries, many new functions and new formats will enter rural areas; Fourth, with the continuous improvement of rural economies, the supply of basic public services has become the focus of the construction of grass-roots villages and towns and will further affect the integration and reconstruction of the spatial pattern of villages and towns.
适度集聚 / 分化趋势 / 新功能 / 新业态 / 新增长点 / 空间重构 / 基本公共服务供给
moderate agglomeration / differentiation trend / new function / new format / new growth point / space reconstruction / basic public service supply
[1] |
方创琳. 中国新型城镇化转型发展的战略方向 [N]. 中国经济时 报, 2014-02-14. Fang C L. Strategic direction of China’s new urbanization transition development [N]. China Economic Times, 2014-02-14.
|
[2] |
赵虎, 郑敏, 戎一翎. 村镇规划发展的阶段、趋势及反思 [J]. 现 代城市研究, 2011(5): 47–50. Zhao H, Zheng M, Rong Y L. Stages, trends and reflections on the development of village planning [J]. Modern Urban Studies, 2011(5): 47–50.
|
[3] |
耿宏兵, 曹广忠. 苏南小城镇目前面临的困境与再发展对 策—— 以江阴市澄东片区发展规划研究为例 [J]. 城市规划学 刊, 2009 (6): 53–59. Geng H B, Cao G Z. Difficulties and redevelopment strategies of small towns in southern Jiangsu Province: A case study of Chengdong district development planning in Jiangyin City [J]. Journal of Urban Planning, 2009 (6): 53–59.
|
[4] |
陈瞻. 中部地区县域城镇化测度、识别与引导策略研究—— 以 湖北省为例 [D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学 (博士学位论文), 2015. Chen Z. Research on the measurement, identification and guidance strategy of county urbanization in central China—Take Hubei Province as an example [D]. Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Doctoral dissertation), 2015.
|
[5] |
肖黎姗, 余兆武, 叶红, 等. 福建省乡村发展与农村经济聚集耦 合分析 [J]. 地理学报, 2015 (4): 615–624. Xiao L S, Yu Z W, Ye H, et al. Coupling analysis of rural development and rural economic aggregation in Fujian Province [J]. Journal of Geography, 2015 (4): 615–624.
|
[6] |
陈伯君. “逆城市化” 趋势下中国村镇的发展机遇兼论城市化的 可持续发展 [J]. 社会科学研究, 2007 (3): 53–57 . Chen B J. Opportunities for the development of Chinese villages and towns under the trend of “anti-urbanization” and on the sustainable development of urbanization [J]. Social Science Research, 2007 (3): 53–57.
|
[7] |
陈振杰. 基于GIS 的县域农村居民点空间竞争研究—— 以浙江 省桐庐县为例 [D]. 南京: 南京大学(博士学位论文), 2006. Chen Z J. Research on spatial competition of rural settlements in county area based on GIS: Taking Tonglu County of Zhejiang Province as an example [D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University (Doctoral dissertation), 2006.
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |