PDF(1258 KB)
PDF(1258 KB)
PDF(1258 KB)
北京市城乡节能节水政策中长期耦合效果分析
Analysis of Medium- and Long-term Coupling Effect of Energy- and Water-Saving Policies in Urban and Rural Areas in Beijing
本文基于长期能源可替代规划系统模型（LEAP）与水资源评价和规划模型（WEAP）建立了城市的能水耦合模型，设立情景分析探讨北京市未来不同措施下城乡的节能/ 节水以及其耦合效果，并对结果进行敏感性分析。模型结果表明，未来北京市能源消费总量将逐年缓慢增长；按预测的供水能力则不会出现供需短缺。“十三五”期间节水政策的总节能量为1.003×106 tce，节能政策的节水量达到2.76×108 m3。居民生活、服务业、建筑业、传统制造业的能源需求值与水需求值具有较好的相关性，是重要的能水耦合部门。对于不同情景不同时期的节能/ 节水效果而言，产业结构优化政策在短期可表现出较好的节能潜力；农业部门的灌溉技术革新与种植结构优化情景，在短期具有较好的节能与节水效果。对于能水节约的协同效应，其在服务业与工业部门节能情景中较明显；对于同一个部门的政策，调控用能强度的情景能水协同节约效应较明显。
An energy-water coupling model is established in this paper based on long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP)
and water evaluation and planning (WEAP), scenarios are then designed to explore the energy- and water-saving effects of different
policies in Beijing in the future and their coupling effects, and sensitivity analysis of the results is also conducted. Results show that the total energy consumption in Beijing will grow gradually by year, while water shortage is unlikely to occur. During the 13th Five-Year Plan, the total energy-saving amount owing to water-saving policies is 1.003 million tonnes of standard coal, and the total water-saving amount owing to energy-saving policies has reached 276 million cubic meters. The energy demand and water demand by residents’living, the service industry, the construction industry, and the traditional manufacturing industry are correlated, as they are critical energy-water coupling sectors. In terms of energy- and water-saving effects in different scenarios and periods, the industrial structure optimization policy shows great energy-saving potentials in the short term, while irrigation technology innovation and planting structure optimization in the agricultural sector have both good energy- and water-saving effects in the short term. A coordinated energy- and water-saving effect can be found in energy-saving scenarios in the service industry and the industrial sector. As for policies in the same sector, regulation on energy use intensity can achieve an obvious coordinated energy- and water-saving effect.
urban and rural areas in Beijing / energy and water-saving / policy coupling analysis
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