在全球大变革背景下，实现农业现代化需要展望并研判2050 年我国农业发展前景、方向与目标，针对性提出加速实现农业现代化的总体思路、关键措施、保障政策。本文梳理了我国农业历史发展经验，深入分析了未来全球农业发展面临的机遇与挑战，进而研判我国未来农业的发展趋势。研究结果表明，过去40 余年我国农业取得迅速增长，科技进步、制度创新、市场改革、农业公共投入是四大驱动力；着眼中长期，农业现代化仍面临农业劳动生产率低、水土资源环境恶化、全球供应链不确定性加大等多重挑战；需要秉持创新、绿色、高效、永续发展理念，在保障居民口粮绝对安全、粮食总供给自主可控的前提下，加快发展高效、绿色、多功能的高值农业。研究建议，实施以口粮绝对安全底线保障为代表的七大重点战略、以现代生物育种与种业创新为标志的八大重点工程，制定农业优先发展、农村土地制度创新、农业科技体制改革、农民教育培训、高值农业发展支持、全球粮食贸易治理等政策措施。

In the global changing era, it is essential to analyze the future trend of agricultural development in China and forecast the target, direction, and path of China’s agricultural modernization toward 2050 in order to provide support for policy making. In this paper, we first investigate agricultural development in the past four decades and then analyze the opportunities and challenges to be faced. Finally, we forecast the future agricultural development in China. Our study shows that China’s agriculture has experienced a rapid growth for the past four decades, underlying which technology progress, institutional innovation, marketization reform, and public investment are attributed as the four major driving forces. Looking forward to the future, agricultural development in China still encounters a lot of challenges including slowdown in productivity growth, degradation in soil and water, and uncertainty of the global supply chain. This implies that, toward 2050, China should stick to the principles of innovation, green, high efficiency, and sustaintability, and accelerate agricultural modernization through efficiently producing more high-valued and green products, so as to maintain domestic food security and self-sustained agricultural supply. To achieve the long-term goal, the government should develop seven major strategies with a focus on biological technology and seedling innovation, and initiate a series of agriculture-supportive policies such as prioritized development of agriculture, innovative land reforms, farmers training, high-value agriculture support, and global agricultural trade management.