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近地小行星撞击风险应对战略研究
Response to Risk of Near-Earth Asteroid Impact
小行星撞击地球引发过 10 次以上不同程度的生物灭绝事件，是人类长期共同面临的重大潜在威胁；防范近地小行星（ NEA）撞击风险事关全球安危与人类文明存续，相关研究现实需求迫切、战略意义深远。本文阐述了 NEA 撞击危害及撞击地球风险情况，研判了积极开展应对的重要意义；系统分析了当前 NEA 撞击风险应对的国际研究态势，涵盖应对流程、监测预警、撞击灾害评估、在轨处置等内容；全面总结了我国 NEA 撞击风险应对的基础进展及存在不足。在此基础上，研究提出了我国应对 NEA 撞击风险的发展目标、体系构成，论证形成了监测预警、在轨处置、灾害救援等重点任务以及基础研究、国际合作主导方向。研究建议，加强撞击风险应对能力顶层设计和长远谋划，高效建立“内聚外联”撞击风险应对业务体系，快速形成撞击风险应对能力和创新能力，着力构建行星防御领域人类命运共同体，由此发展适应国情特色且“监测精准、预警可靠、应对有效、救援有力”的行星防御体系。
Near-Earth asteroid (NEA) impacts on the Earth have caused over 10 biological extinction events of different degrees, threatening all human beings in the long term. The prevention of NEA impacts concerns global security and the survival of human civilization and urgently requires extensive research. In this paper, the hazards and risks of NEA impact on the Earth are described, and the significance of active response is discussed. The current international research situation and trend regarding NEA impact risk response were analyzed, involving response procedures, monitoring and early warning, impact hazard assessment, and on-orbit disposal. The basic progress and shortcomings of NEA impact risk response in China are summarized. Based on the above analysis, the development goals and system structure of NEA impact risk response in China are proposed, and the key tasks are summarized and discussed involving monitoring and early warning, on-orbit disposal, disaster rescue, basic research, and international cooperation. Furthermore, we suggest that China should strengthen the top-level design and long-term planning of impact risk response, establish an integrated impact risk response system, develop impact risk response and innovation capabilities, and build a community with a shared future for mankind in the field of planetary defense, thereby creating a planetary defense system that adapts to China’s national conditions and achieves accurate monitoring, reliable warning, effective disposal, and efficient rescue.
近地小行星 / 撞击危害 / 撞击风险应对 / 监测预警 / 在轨处置 / 国际合作
near-Earth asteroid / impact hazards / impact risk response / monitoring and early warning / on-orbit disposal / international cooperation
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