基于水资源约束的我国城市发展策略研究
吴志强 , 刘晓畅 , 刘琦 , 乔壬路 , 刘治宇 , 杨婷 , 严娟 , 姬凌云
中国工程科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (5) : 75 -88.
基于水资源约束的我国城市发展策略研究
Urban Development Strategies in China Based on Water Resource Constraints
水资源是城市发展的基础性自然资源和战略性经济资源,是城市生态环境的控制性要素,是城市空间的基本底色。我国水资源分布不平衡、区域结构性缺水、水污染等问题严峻,制约了城市的发展,亟需以城市为独立研究单元进行全域诊断与推演,对全国的城市水环境和用水特征进行分析并制定策略。本文通过对我国八大综合经济区的369个城市的水情总体特征以及关键要素时空分布格局进行分析,揭示了我国800 mm等雨量线、降水总量与水资源总量关系的演进规律;从未来推演视角,预测了我国369个城市2035年水平衡发展情势;在此基础上,聚焦城市用水需求与水资源供给之间的矛盾,将我国的城市划分为“城渴型”“产旱型”“房淹型”3类,分别阐述3类城市的水环境特征和空间分布。最后,本文提出了适应水条件的我国城市发展政策建议,包括“以水定城”的新型城镇化对策、“以水定产”的城市产业发展对策和“以水定人”的城市人口发展对策,以期对我国今后城市发展布局提供参考。
Water resources are the fundamental natural resources and strategic economic resources demanded by urban development, and are crucial for urban ecological environment. However, the unbalanced distribution of water resources, regional structural shortage of water, and water pollution have been hindering China’s urban development. Therefore, city-scale fullcoverage water resource diagnosis and deduction are urgently required to reveal the status of water environment and water use characteristics of different cities in China for more rational and specific strategy-making. The study analyzes the overall characteristics of water environment and the spatial distribution of key urban elements in 369 cities within eight comprehensive economic regions, reveals the dynamic interactive relationship among the 800 mm isopluvial, total precipitation, and total water resources in China, and predicts the water balance trends of the 369 cities by 2035. On this basis, according to the types of water demand and supply contradictions, the study categorizes Chinese cities into domestic water deficient cities, water – industry mismatching cities, and flood-prone cities. The study further reveals the spatial layout and water environment characteristics of these cities and proposes urban development strategies for Chinese cities to grow in accordance with their specific water resource conditions, including water resource-based urbanization, water resource-based industrial development, and water resource-based population development.
水资源 / 城渴型 / 产旱型 / 房淹型 / 以水定城 / 水情推演
water resource / domestic water deficient cities / water – industry mismatching cities / flood-prone cities / water resourcebased urbanization / water condition deduction
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