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中国极端降水和高温历史变化及未来趋势
Historical Changes and Future Trends of Extreme Precipitation and High Temperature in China
在全球变暖背景下，我国极端事件频发，了解和掌握极端事件的时空变化，合理预估极端事件的未来趋势，可为制定区域气候变化适应策略提供理论依据。本文利用CN05.1 全国网格气象数据和第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的11 种全球气候模式，分析了我国1975—2014 年历史极端降水和高温事件的演变特征，研判了2015—2054 年极端事件的变化情况，提出了应对极端事件的政策建议。结果表明：① 1975—2014 年，全国强降水量呈现由西北向东南依次增加‒ 减少‒增加的空间格局，胡焕庸线以东地区极端降水风险和危险性较大；在选取的两种对比情景下，2015—2054 年，我国极端降水将普遍增多趋强，其中华北和东北地区极端降水事件增幅较大，西北地区强降水量将进一步增加。② 我国1975—2014 年暖夜日数和暖昼日数均呈显著增加趋势，暖夜日数增幅高于暖昼日数增幅；在选取的两种对比情景下，2015—2054 年，我国极端高温事件将显著增加，西北、西南和华南等地区的高温热浪风险增幅最大。为减缓气候变化影响和应对未来极端事件风险，应进一步提升洪涝灾害和高温热浪风险应对和应急管理能力，强化国际合作并因地制宜制定相关适应气候变化战略，以防范和应对全球变暖引起的极端灾害。
Extreme events occur frequently in China against the background of global warming. Understanding the spatiotemporal variation of extreme events and predicting their future trends can provide a theoretical basis for formulating regional strategies that adapt to climate change. Using the CN05.1 grid meteorological data and eleven global climate models based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we analyzed the evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and high temperature events in China from 1975 to 2014, predicted the evolution of extreme events from 2015 to 2054, and proposes policy suggestions for dealing with these events. The results indicate that, from 1975 to 2014, the heavy precipitation exhibited an increasing-decreasing-increasing pattern from the northwest to southeast region of China, and the risk and catastrophability of extreme precipitation in regions located to the east of the Hu Line were great. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios, extreme precipitation in China will generally increase and become stronger by 2054, with a significant increase in North and Northeast China and a further increase in Northwest China. From 1975 to 2014, the number of warm nights and warm days in China increased significantly, and the increase in warm nights was higher than that of warm days. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios, extreme heat events in China will increase significantly by 2054, with the greatest increase in Northwest, Southwest, and South China. To mitigate the impact of climate change and cope with the risk of extreme events in the future, China should further improve its response and emergency management capacities for dealing with flood and extreme heat risks, strengthen international cooperation, and formulate strategies adapted to local conditions.
climate change / extreme event / CMIP6 / extreme disaster response
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