近年来我国特大城市暴雨链生灾害频发，严重威胁人民的生命财产安全和社会稳定，采取有效应对措施及时进行断链减灾至关重要。本文深入梳理暴雨链生灾害体系，研究当前内涝灾害趋势推演模型以及各类推演模拟成果在灾害链阻断过程中的重要作用，提出模拟推演与综合响应相结合的断链思路，明确各类应急主体在特大城市巨灾应对过程中的响应策略。同时，提出以“预案”“监测”“推演”“协同”“救援”为基础的特大城市暴雨链生灾害总体应对思路，针对突发灾害场景下的多部门预案协同、多维度信息汇聚、多层级精准预警、多队伍联动调度等关键问题提出了完备综合预案体系、构建监测预警网络、提升模拟推演应用、强化联合响应能力、夯实精准救援能力五方面应对方法。并在政策法规制定、标准编制、智慧化技术应用、智能预警与定向发布技术的推广、“全民应急”新格局的形成方面提出了发展建议。

In recent years, rainstorm chain disasters occurred frequently in megacities in China, seriously threatening people’s life and property safety and social stability. Therefore, it is essential to take effective measures to timely break the chain and mitigate the disasters.This study thoroughly analyzes the disaster chain system of rainstorms and studies the trend deduction model of waterlogging disasters and the important role of various deductive simulation results in intercepting the disaster chain. It also proposes a chain breaking idea of combining simulation deduction with comprehensive response and clarifies the response strategies of various emergency bodies in the disaster response in megacities. Moreover, an overall response idea based on the policy of preparation, supervision, simulation, connection, and rescue is proposed. In view of the key problems including multi-department plan coordination, multi-dimensional information aggregation, multi-level accurate warning, and multi-team linked dispatching, we propose the following countermeasures: completing the comprehensive plan system, constructing a monitoring and early warning network, improving simulation and deduction application, strengthening joint response ability, and boosting the accurate rescue ability. Furthermore, development suggestions are proposed from the following aspects: formulation of policies and regulations, compilation of standards, application of intelligent technology, promotion of intelligent early warning and directional release technology, and formation of a new pattern of “national emergency.”