我国食物安全保障面临国际供应链不稳定、食物系统转型升级、碳减排压力增大等新形势，未来食物供需情况不容乐观，因而深化国家食物安全战略研究需求迫切。基于中国农业产业模型进行了预测分析，我国粮食供求缺口将在2030 年达到峰值（1.66×10⁸ t），粮食自给率将持续下滑，2035—2050 年的粮食供需缺口将有所减少；2020—2050 年的畜产品、水产品、油菜籽和糖的总需求量将继续增长，净进口量将同步保持增长。面向我国食物安全在耕地、供应链、营养结构、系统风险、科技创新等方面存在的突出问题，建议确立新型大食物安全观，在坚持“以我为主、立足国内、确保产能、适度进口、科技支撑”的基础上，实施“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全、主要农产品自主可控、确保国家食物主控权”的食物安全总体战略。坚守口粮自给率97%、谷物自给率90%、粮食自给率80%的战略底线，围绕“振兴种业、提升地力、防灾减灾、高效低碳”目标，部署现代种业提升、高标准粮田建设、区域食物安全保障、农业绿色低碳、饲料蛋白质替代等重大工程。同步实施强化食物消费需求管理、拓展食物供应链、加强风险管控等举措，充分保障国家食物数量、质量和营养安全。

Food security in China is facing new challenges, including instability of the international supply chain, transformation and upgrading of the food system, and increased pressure to further reduce carbon emissions, making the future supply and demand situation of food in China unoptimistic. Therefore, it is imperative to deepen research on national food security strategies. As is predicted using the China Agricultural Sector Model, China’s grain supply and demand gap will reach the peak (1.66 × 10⁸ t) in 2030 and its food self-sufficiency rate will continuously decline; however, the gap is expected to drop from 2035–2050. From 2020–2050, the total demand for livestock products, aquatic products, rapeseed, and sugar will continuously grow while their net imports will maintain growth. To address the prominent problems regarding food security in China in terms of farmland, supply chain, nutritional structure, systemic risk, and technological innovation, we propose the establishment of an all-encompassing approach to food. Additionally, food security should be maintained by relying on domestic production and supported by moderate imports and technological innovation. An overall food-security strategy that features self-sufficiency of grains, self-reliance of major agricultural products, and national food sovereignty should be implemented. We should hold on to the bottom line of maintaining a selfsufficiency rate of 97% for staple grains, 90% for grains, and 80% for overall grain supply. Focusing on the goals of revitalizing the seed industry, boosting land capacity, preventing and mitigating disasters, and achieving high efficiency and low carbon, we suggest a series of major projects for upgrading the seed industry, constructing high-standard grain fields, guaranteeing regional food security, promoting green and low-carbon development of agriculture, and substituting conventional feed protein. Furthermore, major measures should be adopted to strengthen food demand management, expand food supply chains, and enhance risk control, thereby ensuring the quantity, quality, and nutritional security of national food.