
公共安全领域工程科技未来20年发展战略研究
Development Strategy of Public Safety Engineering Science and Technology in the Next 20 Years
安全是人类生存和发展的基本问题,建设更高水平的平安中国是实现高质量发展的紧迫要求,也是新发展阶段的重要目标。本文旨在展望2040年公共安全领域工程科技的远景目标,为我国公共安全建设的发展战略和工程科技项目部署提供支撑。以未来新形势与新技术发展背景下的公共安全领域科技发展态势为导向,全面分析了世界公共安全科技发展现状与发展趋势;重点围绕自然灾害防御、事故灾难防范、安全韧性城市、综合应急4个领域,剖析了我国公共安全领域的发展需求。在此基础上,提出了我国公共安全领域工程科技发展的思路、战略目标与总体框架,总结了我国公共安全领域工程科技的发展方向,涵盖重点任务、基础研究方向、重大工程与重大工程科技项目。最后,针对我国公共安全领域的科技发展路径,从政策与研究体系方面提出了发展建议。
Safety is the basis of human survival and development. Building a higher level of Peaceful China is crucial for achieving high-quality development in the new stage. This study aims to look forward to the long-term goals by 2040, thus to support the conception of development strategies as well as the deployment of engineering science and technology projects for the construction of public safety. Considering the new situations and technologies, this study analyzes the development status and the state-of-the-art level of public security science and technologies worldwide. Focusing on the aspects of natural disaster prevention, accident disaster prevention, safe and resilient cities, and comprehensive emergency management, this study analyzes the development needs of public safety science and technologies in China. Based on this, it proposes the idea, strategic objectives, and an overall framework for the development of public safety science and technologies in China and summarizes the development directions, covering key engineering tasks, basic research directions, and major engineering projects. With regard to the path of scientific and technological development in the field of public safety in China, development proposals are made in terms of policy and research systems.
公共安全 / 自然灾害 / 事故灾难 / 韧性城市 / 综合应急
public safety / natural disaster / accident disaster / resilient city / comprehensive emergency management
[1] |
建设更高水平的平安中国 [N]. 人民日报, 2021-09-02 (15).
Building a higher level of safe China [N]. People's Daily, 2021-09-02 (15).
|
[2] |
坚持以人民安全为宗旨 建设更高水平的平安中国 [N]. 人民日报, 2023-06-02 (09).
Stick to the principle of people's safety and build a higher level of safe China [N]. People's Daily, 2023-06-02 (09).
|
[3] |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability [R]. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022.
|
[4] |
AghaKouchak A, Huning L S, Chiang F, et al. How do natural hazards cascade to cause disasters? [J]. Nature, 2018, 561(7724): 458‒460.
|
[5] |
van Dis E A M, Bollen J, Zuidema W, et al. ChatGPT: Five priorities for research [J]. Nature, 2023, 614(7947): 224‒226.
|
[6] |
Friday E W Jr. The modernization and associated restructuring of the national weather service: An overview [J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1994, 75(1): 43‒52.
|
[7] |
Stumpf G J, Smith T M, Thomas C. The National Severe Storms Laboratory's contribution to severe weather warning improvement: Multiple-sensor severe weather applications [J]. Atmospheric Research, 2003, 67: 657‒669.
|
[8] |
Frankel A D, Mueller C S, Barnhard T P, et al. USGS national seismic hazard maps [J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2000, 16(1): 1‒19.
|
[9] |
Schneider P J, Schauer B A. HAZUS—Its development and its future [J]. Natural Hazards Review, 2006, 7(2): 40‒44.
|
[10] |
Hamele M. Integrating climate change into state hazard mitigation plans: A five-year follow-up survey [D]. Washington DC: University of Washington (Master's thesis), 2023.
|
[11] |
Backman S. Risk vs. threat-based cybersecurity: The case of the EU [J]. European Security, 2023, 32(1): 85‒103.
|
[12] |
Pursiainen C, Kytömaa E. From European critical infrastructure protection to the resilience of European critical entities: What does it mean? [J]. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 2023, 8(sup1): 85‒101.
|
[13] |
Flinders M V. Research Leadership matters: Agility, alignment, ambition [M]. Oxford: Higher Education Policy Institute, 2022.
|
[14] |
Moret Y E. The HyPSTER project: Emergence of a new form of massive hydrogen storage essential to achieving carbon neutrality [J]. Realites Industrielles, 2022: 137‒142.
|
[15] |
Menut L, Bessagnet B, Khvorostyanov D, et al. CHIMERE 2013: A model for regional atmospheric composition modelling [J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2013, 6(4): 981‒1028.
|
[16] |
Furuta N, Seino S. Progress and gaps in eco-DRR policy and implementation after the great East Japan earthquake [C]// Renaud F, Sudmeier-Rieux K, Estrella M, et al. Advances in natural and technological hazards research. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016: 295‒313.
|
[17] |
Çipi A, Fernandes A C R D, Ferreira F A F, et al. Detecting and developing new business opportunities in society 5.0 contexts: A sociotechnical approach [J]. Technology in Society, 2023, 73: 102243.
|
[18] |
Walding N G, Williams H T P, McGarvie S, et al. A comparison of the US national fire danger rating system (NFDRS) with recorded fire occurrence and final fire size [J]. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2018, 27(2): 99.
|
[19] |
Wang X L, Wotton B M, Cantin A S, et al. Cffdrs: An R package for the Canadian forest fire danger rating system [J]. Ecological Processes, 2017, 6(1): 5.
|
[20] |
Dowdy A J, Mills G A, Finkele K, et al. Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian forest fire weather index and the McArthur forest fire danger index [J]. Meteorological Applications, 2010, 17(3): 298‒312.
|
[21] |
Morvan D, Dupuy J L, Rigolot E, et al. FIRESTAR: A physically based model to study wildfire behaviour [J]. Forest Ecology and Management, 2006, 234: S114.
|
[22] |
Kilinc F S, Monaghan W D, Powell J B. A review of mine rescue ensembles for underground coal mining in the United States [J]. Journal of Engineered Fibers and Fabrics, 2014, 9(1): 174‒185.
|
[23] |
Spadoni G, Egidi D, Contini S. Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities [J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2000, 71(1/2/3): 423‒437.
|
[24] |
Papazoglou A, Aneziris O, Bonanos G, et al. SOCRATES: A computerized toolkit for quantification of the risk from accidental releases of toxic and/or flammable substances [J]. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 1996, 6(4‒6): 500‒533.
|
[25] |
Cosofret B R, Marinelli W J, Ustun T E, et al. Passive infrared imaging sensor for standoff detection of methane leaks [C]. Philadelphia: Chemical and Biological Standoff Detection II, 2004.
|
[26] |
Chapman D N, Metje N, Stark A. Introduction to tunnel construction [M]. Boca Raton: Chemical & Rubber & Company Press, 2017.
|
[27] |
黄弘, 李瑞奇, 范维澄, 等. 安全韧性城市特征分析及对雄安新区安全发展的启示 [J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2018, 14(7): 5‒11.
Huang H, Li R Q, Fan W C, et al. Analysis on characteristics of safety resilient city and enlightenments for safe development of Xiongan New Area [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2018, 14(7): 5‒11.
|
[28] |
McArdle A. Storm surges, disaster planning, and vulnerable populations at the urban periphery: Imagining a resilient New York after superstorm Sandy [J]. The Idaho Law Review., 2014, 50(2): 19‒48.
|
[29] |
Tousley S, Rhee S. Smart and secure cities and communities [C]. Porto: 2018 IEEE International Science of Smart City Operations and Platforms Engineering in Partnership with Global City Teams Challenge (SCOPE-GCTC), 2018.
|
[30] |
Davoudi S, Brooks E, Mehmood A. Evolutionary resilience and strategies for climate adaptation [J]. Planning Practice and Research, 2013, 28(3): 307‒322.
|
[31] |
Kempton Y, Salvati L, Vardopoulos I. Long-term planning and development for urban and regional inclusion, safety, resilience, and sustainability. Insights from Singapore [J]. Region & Periphery, 2023, 14(14): 59‒79.
|
[32] |
Standohar-Alfano C D, Estes H, Johnston T, et al. Reducing losses from wind-related natural perils: Research at the IBHS research center [J]. Frontiers in Built Environment, 2017, 3: 9.
|
[33] |
Ba R, Deng Q, Liu Y, et al. Multi-hazard disaster scenario method and emergency management for urban resilience by integrating experiment–simulation–field data [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, 2021, 2(2): 77‒89.
|
[34] |
Horiuchi T, Ohsaki M, Kurata M, et al. Contributions of E-defense shaking table to earthquake engineering and its future [J]. Journal of Disaster Research, 2022, 17(6): 985‒999.
|
[35] |
Cui F, Lai X, Cao J, et al. Exploration technology of sound wave and electromagnetic wave united optical imagining verification for evaluating stability of mining roadway in steeply dipping coal seams [R]. Shanghai: SINOROCK 2013 3rd ISRM Symposium on Rock Mechanics, 2013.
|
[36] |
Dallaire P L, Garneau M. The use of a ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to characterize peat stratigraphy and estimate the carbon pool in a boreal peatland, Eastmain region, James bay, Quebec, Canada [R]. Birmingham: 12th International Conference on Ground-Penetrating Radar, 2008.
|
[37] |
Carcione J M, Karczewski J, Mazurkiewicz E, et al. Numerical modelling of GPR electromagnetic fields for locating burial sites [J]. E3S Web of Conferences, 2017, 24: 01002.
|
[38] |
Benedetto A, Tosti F, Ciampoli L B, et al. GPR applications across engineering and geosciences disciplines in Italy: A review [J]. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 2016, 9(7): 2952‒2965.
|
[39] |
袁宏永, 章翔, 黄丽达, 等. 城市生命线安全工程关键技术研究进展 [J]. 武汉大学学报(信息科学版), 2024, 49(8): 1251‒1263.
Yuan H Y, Zhang X, Huang L D, et al. A review of progress of key technologies for urban lifeline safety engineering [J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2024, 49(8): 1251‒1263.
|
[40] |
Alperen M J. National incident management system (NIMS) [M]. Hoboken: Wiley, 2011.
|
[41] |
曹海峰. 欧盟重大突发事件应急协调机制及其借鉴 [J]. 中州学刊, 2016 (12): 60‒67.
Cao H F. EU coordination mechanism in emergency management and its successful experiences [J]. Academic Journal of Zhongzhou, 2016 (12): 60‒67.
|
[42] |
Yuan H Y, Huang L D, Chen T, et al. Key technologies of the emergency platform in China [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, 2022, 3(4): 404‒415.
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |