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长江上游流域水文干旱历史演变及未来预估
王云, 李文鑫, 张建云, 刘翠善, 阮俞理, 虞畅, 金君良, 王国庆, 贺瑞敏
中国工程科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6) : 157-168.
PDF(1156 KB)
PDF(1156 KB)
长江上游流域水文干旱历史演变及未来预估
Historical Evolution and Future Prediction of Hydrological Droughts in the Upper Yangtze River Basin
受全球气候变化影响，长江流域水文干旱事件频发且强度不断增加，严重威胁粮食安全和经济发展。本文利用水量平衡（RCCC-WBM）模型，分析了长江上游直门达、朱沱、寸滩、宜昌4个水文站及以上流域的水文要素历史演变和未来发展趋势，并基于标准化径流指数（SRI）识别了长江上游流域的水文干旱事件及特征。结果表明：① 1961—2020年，朱沱、寸滩和宜昌3个水文站的径流量及对应长江上游干流区、岷沱江、嘉陵江及乌江各子流域的SRI均呈减少趋势，即微弱变旱化趋势，而直门达水文站径流及以上金沙江流域SRI呈增加趋势，即无旱化趋势。② 2021—2090年，各水文站及以上流域SRI均呈增大趋势，说明长江上游流域未来呈无旱化趋势，这可能与未来预估降水、径流大幅增加密切相关；未来水文干旱频次、频率、历时及烈度均表现为近期较强，远期较弱。鉴于长江上游流域极端水文干旱现象日益显著，防旱减灾工作紧迫，建议完善抗旱机制体制，提升基础设施建设和应急管理能力，强化数字技术赋能，构建智慧防旱减灾体系并突出创新驱动，以强化防旱减灾科技支撑。
Under the influence of global climate change, hydrological drought events in the Yangtze River have occurred frequently with an increasing intensity, seriously threatening food security and economic development. This study uses the monthly water balance model developed by the Research Center for Climate Change (i.e., the RCCC-WBM model) to analyze the historical evolution and future trends of hydrological features in four hydrological stations (Zhimenda, Zhutuo, Cuntan, and Yichang) in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the basins above. Meanwhile, hydrological drought events and their characteristics are identified based on the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). The results show that: (1) From 1961 to 2020, the runoffs of Zhutuo, Cuntan, and Yichang hydrological stations, along with the SRI of the main stream area in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the sub-basins of the Minjiang, Tuojiang, Jialing, and Wujiang River, exhibited a decreasing trend, indicating a slight drying trend, while the runoff of the Zhimenda hydrological station and the SRI of the Jinsha River basin above it showed an increasing trend, suggesting no drought tendency. (2) From 2021 to 2090, the SRI of each hydrological station and its upstream basins all showed an increasing trend, indicating that the upper reaches of the Yangtze River have no drought tendency in the future; this may be closely related to the significant increase in projected precipitation and runoff. The frequency, occurrence rate, duration, and intensity of hydrological droughts will be stronger in the near term and weaker in the long term. Given the increasingly prominent extreme hydrological droughts in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, drought prevention and disaster reduction becomes urgent. It is recommended to improve the drought combating mechanism and system, strengthen infrastructure construction and emergency management capabilities, promote the digital technology to build a smart drought-prevention and disaster-reduction system, and highlight technological innovation to strengthen the scientific and technological support for drought prevention and mitigation.
长江上游流域 / 水文干旱 / CMIP6 / RCCC-WBM模型 / 标准化径流指数
upper Yangtze River basin / hydrological drought / CMIP6 / RCCC-WBM model / Standardized Runoff Index
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