农村地区能源需求预测属于区域能源需求预测的范畴，主要突出地域的概念。预测中国农村地区能源消费需求形势，将有助于制订农村可持续发展的能源战略。本文根据我国要在2050年达到世界中等发达国家的经济水平这一大目标的要求，通过科学分析测算，提出了农村地区中长期能源需求的常规方案和加强可再生能源开发利用的方案。预计到2020年和2050年，农村地区居住人口分别为6.7亿和4.8亿，采用加强方案，对商品能源的需求量将分别达到12.9×10⁸t和16.3×10⁸t标准煤。

Rural energy forecast belongs to the category of regional energy forecast. To forecast the demand of energy consumption in rural area of China will be useful for drawing out the rural energy strategy with rural sustainable development. Based on analysis and calculation this paper brings forward the conventional scheme and the strengthening renewable energy utilization scheme.The energy consumption in rural region is mainly divided into two components, i.e. used for economic development and for farmer households living. Following the progress in implementation of the state key project “Small Rural City - township Construction” most of rural population will be urbanized locally. It is expected by the year of 2020 and 2050, there will be about 670 and 480 millions of pepole living in rural area, and in the case of the “strengthening” scheme, the total commodity energy demand is about 1290 and 1632 Mt coal equivalent ,respectively.If the energy consumption in village and town enterprises is not included in two schemes, the total energy demand in rural area will be 970 〜1080 Mt coal equivalent in 2050. The coal consumption will account for 31.7% of the total.