为了初步解决新奥法隧道工程支护初期缺乏有效的、定量的围岩稳定性判据以及塌方事故多见的技术难题，文章论述了变形速率比值判据假说的依据，得出阈值的方法及应用中常的五种典型情况；猫山公路隧道施工中正反两方面的演绎证明，两个断面应用变形速率比值判据预报险情，化险为夷，另一断面中止应用此判据后，发生大塌方；变形速率比值判据是一种典型信息法，是一种假说—演绎方法，是从定性到定量综合集成法的一种初步应用。

In order to help solving the technical puzzles of lacking in scientific, reasonable and quantitative surrounding rock stability criteria in the initial lining during tunneling excavation by NATM and occurring of many cave-ins, in this paper some viewpoints are put forward, the essentials of which are as follows： 1. Advance the basis for the hypothesis of deformation rate ratio criterion (DRRC) and the method for obtaining the threshold of this criterion, and enumerate five typical cases for the application of this criterion to the tunnelingexcavation; 2. The success and failure in the Maoshan expressway tunnel excavation are deducted and verified from positive and negative aspects. DRRC was used in two excavating sections to forecasted dangerous situations resulting in coming safely out of cave-in accidents, while the use of DRRG was compelled to stop in another excavating section and a big cave-in accident happened; 3. Obtain the method of DRRC for constituting a typical information method, which is characterized by the combination of prototype information and typical information. DRRC is a kind of hypothetico-deductive method, and it is also a preliminary application of metasynthesis from the qualitative to the quantitative.