对震灾的各种主要风险因素进行系统的辨识和分析，并建立了震灾风险预测的遗传神经网络模型，用实例证明了该模型的可行性与有效性，为决策部门提供一种有效的震灾风险预测方法。

This paper discerns and analyzes some main factors influencing seismic disasters risk at first, and then, the forecasting model of seismic risk based on the genetic algorithm and artificial neural networks is proposed. The case shows that the model is practical and effective. A kind of forecasting method of seismic disaster risk is presented to decision making departments.