2005年卡特里娜（Katrina）和丽塔（Rita）飓风对美国新奥尔良市和佛罗里达东部海岸带来的灾难性破坏，验证了笔者在20世纪80年代初期提出的复合极值分布理论及其对上述海域飓风强度预测结果的正确性。以此为鉴，讨论了海岸、近海、水利和城市防灾工程中引入不确定性分析和多维联合概率理论进行风险分析的必要性。

Comparison among predicted hurricane characteristics with the Poisson-Weibull compound extreme value distribution proposed by the authors in 1982,  Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution in 2004 and hurricane disaster prevention design criteria for New Orleans (proposed by NOAA) shows that the compound extreme value distribution is a more reasonable model for typhoon or hurricane statistical prediction.  Based on the lesson from Hurricane Katrina,  this paper involved the uncertainty analysis and multivariate joint probability theory to the risk assessment for coastal,  offshore and hydraulic engineering.