危险品运输选线的定量风险评价模型

任常兴1、吴宗之​​​​​​​2、刘茂​​​​​​​1

中国工程科学 ›› 2007, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (8) : 72-76.

PDF(490 KB)
PDF(490 KB)
中国工程科学 ›› 2007, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (8) : 72-76.

危险品运输选线的定量风险评价模型

  • 任常兴1、吴宗之​​​​​​​2、刘茂​​​​​​​1

作者信息 +

College of Environmental Science and Engineer, Nankai University, Tianjin300071, China

  • Ren Changxing1、Wu Zongzhi2、Liu Mao​​​​​​​1

Author information +
History +

摘要

定量化风险评价是危险品道路运输选线的重要决策依据,但在如何定量其风险方面往往存在分歧。系统地总结了常见的危险品运输定量风险评价模型,将其划分为传统风险评价模型及其特例、感知风险模型、条件风险模型、侧重后果的避灾风险模型以及改进后的传统风险模型5类,分析了风险评价模型的性质和原则,对将来的研究发展提出了建议 。

Abstract

Selecting route for hazardous materials (Hazmat) transportation by road is a bilateral decision between local government and the carriers,  involving safety,  environmental and economic factors.  Among them,  the quantitative risk assessment is an important method.  However,  there has been no agreement among researchers on the proper model of the associated transport risk and dfferent models to quantify risk in different ways.  In this paper,  the most common Hazmat transport risk models in the literature are reviewed,  which are divided into five classes including traditional risk model and models derived from it,  perceived risk,  conditional risk,  catastrophe avoidance models and modified traditional risk models.  Moreover,  it is discussed in detail on multiple trips multi-accident.  Finall y,  an example used by these models is evaluated,  and the challenging development of risk model is proposed.

关键词

危险品 / 选线 / 定量风险评价 / 道路运输

Keywords

hazardous materials / routing / road transportation / quantitative risk assessment

引用本文

导出引用
任常兴,吴宗之,刘茂. 危险品运输选线的定量风险评价模型. 中国工程科学. 2007, 9(8): 72-76

参考文献

基金
科研院所社会公益研究资助项目(2004DID2J06)
PDF(490 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

段落导航
相关文章

/