分析了物流管理模式及我国物流管理现状，通过建立模型，采用实物期权分析方法，得到了物流服务效率不确定条件下企业从自营物流管理模式转向采用第三方物流管理模式的门槛值。分析结果表明，自营物流服务的效率、企业原有资产的损失及交易成本的大小、物流服务效率提高速度的快慢与物流服务效率的不确定程度，会对企业物流管理模式的选择产生重要影响。

The logistics models and the current situation of logistics management in China are analyzed in this paper. Through setting up model, the enterprises' threshold to transfer to the third party logistics mode from self-run logistics mode under efficiency uncertainty is obtained with the real option approach. Further, the results shows: the choice of the logistics management model in enterprises are critically influenced by following aspects: the efficiency of self-run logistics, the quantity of the portfolio damages and the transaction costs, the raise speed and the uncertainty of the logistics efficiency.