应坚持地震是可以预测预报的科学信念——记汶川三次强余震的成功预测

汪成民()

中国工程科学 ›› 2009, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6) : 107-110.

PDF(703 KB)
PDF(703 KB)
中国工程科学 ›› 2009, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6) : 107-110.

应坚持地震是可以预测预报的科学信念——记汶川三次强余震的成功预测

  • 汪成民()

作者信息 +

The scientific faith that earthquake is predictable should be insisted—the successful prediction of three strong aftershocks of Wenchuan Earthquake

  • Wang Chengmin

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History +

摘要

地震能否预测? 汶川大震后地震系统内、社会舆论对这个焦点问题给予了广泛关注及争论。汶川地震后,中国地震预测咨询委员会的专家们就汶川余震开展了预测研究,以实际行动支援灾区救灾抢险工作,从5月15日至8月15日咨询委员会发布了3次正式预测意见,均正确预报了5 月18 日江油6.0级、5月25日青川6.4 级、8月1日北川6.1级3次强余震。虽然余震预测难度比主震预测要小,但3次预测全部正确,无一虚报、错报的科学事实,应该引起持“地震预测需十几代、几十代后才能解决”观点者醒悟,呼吁对地震成功预测的事实持不屑一顾,甚至压制者深思,并认真给予公平对待。

Abstract

Is earthquake predictable? This question has been discussed a lot by earthquake researchers and common people after the Wenchuan Earthquake.The specialists in Chinese Earthquake Prediction Consultation Committee started the aftershock prediction research after the earthquake to support emergency rescue and disaster relief with practical action.From May 15 to August 15, the committee formally reported prediction results for 3 times and the three strong aftershocks, i.e.M 6.0 earthquake on May 18 in Jiangyou, M 6.4 earthquake on May 25 in Qingchuan and M 6.1 earthquake on August 1 in Beichuan, have been correctly predicted.Through predicting aftershock isn't so difficult as predicting main shock, those people who think earthquake can be predicted after decades of generations and despise the academic viewpoint that earthquake is predictable should think over the fact that the prediction of all three aftershocks was correct without any miss report, and treat the academic viewpoint equally.

关键词

汶川大震 / 汶川余震 / 地震短临预测

Keywords

Wenchuan Earthquake / aftershock of Wenchuan Earthquake / earthquake short -impending prediction

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汪成民. 应坚持地震是可以预测预报的科学信念——记汶川三次强余震的成功预测. 中国工程科学. 2009, 11(6): 107-110

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