
汶川巨震的预测和思考
Prediction and thoughts of the Wenchuan large earthquake
Geng Qingguo
根据多年来对旱震关系、强震活动有序性及强磁暴组合法的地震预测探索,就川、甘、青、陕,特别是四川阿坝州地区的地震活动连续3年的研究做了简要的回顾,披露了在汶川地震前的2005 年12 月8 日向中国地震局提交的“关于加强川甘青交界地区强震短临监测和分析预报应急工作的紧急建议”要点。
According to many years of earthquake prediction exploring work based on analysis of drought -earthquake relations and ordered strong earthquake activities and the method of strong geomagnetic storm combinations,the paper briefly reviewed the consecutive three year studies of seismic activities in the Sichuan-Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxiregion, especially within the Sichuan Abazhou area, and revealed the main points of the "Urgent advice to enhance strong earthquake short-term/imminent monitoring and analysis prediction contingency work for the Sichuan-Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxi region" report submitted to the China seismological Bureau on Dec.8, 2005.
汶川巨震预测 / 旱震关系 / 强震活动有序性 / 强磁暴组合法
Wenchuan Large Earthquake prediction / drought-earthquake relations / strong earthquake activities order / strong geomagnetic storm combination method
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