地震预测是一项社会公益事业，然而由于技术的原因目前还不能做出成功预报，当前应认真研究以适应社会对地震预测的需求。为研究2008 年“5· 12”汶川8 级地震预测的可能性，基于地震自身的信息提出了一种数值建模预测地震震级方法，以及依据卫星遥感射出长波辐射信息预测蕴震地区的方法。其结果表明该方法是地震预测技术的一个可行的途径。

Earthquake prediction is an undertaking of public welfare.But earthquakes cannot be successfully predicted at present due to technological reasons.Earthquake prediction should be studied earnestly to adapt the demand of society for earthquake prediction at present.In order to study the possiblity of predicting the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake occurred on May 12,2008, based on the earthquake information itsself, this paper has suggesed a kind of numerical modeling method for predicting the earthquake magnitudes,and a method for predicting seismogenic areas by means of the Outgoing-Long-Wave-Radiation (OLR) information of satellite remote sensing. The results show that it is a technically feasible approach.