
基于风险分析的可靠性指标加速验证方法研究
Zero-failure accelerated reliability demonstration test method based on degradation model
Zhang Huirui
传统的可靠性验证试验由于一般在使用条件下进行,且只利用失效数据进行判定,往往需要大量的时间和费用。这对于高可靠长寿命船舶设备可靠性指标的验证是不可接受的。本文提出一种基于风险分析的可靠性指标加速验证方法,该方法利用退化数据进行分析,在试验风险可接受的条件下提前截止试验,得出验证结果。同时,利用高环境应力可以加速退化过程,进一步减少试验时间。本文具体给出了分析和计算提前截止试验和利用高应力进行试验产生的额外风险的方法,保证了验证结果的真实可靠。最后利用案例证实了该方法在减少验证试验时间上的有效性。
Traditional life demonstration test is conducted under normal conditions and fails to use degradation observations,thus requires large amount of time and money. We can employ degradation data to predict whether a unit will pass the test by the end of test,and the test can be terminated early when this prediction does not cost unacceptable risk. Also higher stress can accelerate the degradation of the unit to cut down the test time. Thus it is necessary to propose a method that take advantage of both degradation data and accelerated test to reduce the test time and cost,which is done by this article. In particular,the article propose an approach to analyses and calculate the additional risks caused by early termination of the test and applying higher stress based on degradation model,then the minimum sample size of different test time can be picked. The article also use optimal plan to give expected test time and give deciding rules of terminating the test for each unit. At last,the method is illustrated by an example, showing that the method is efficient in reducing test time.
退化数据 / 加速验证试验 / 可靠性验证 / 风险分析 / 优化设计
degradation model / accelerated testing / life demonstration / risk analysis / optimum plan
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