2017, Volume 19, Issue 1
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2017, Volume 19, Issue 1 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.01.003
Analysis and Forecast of China’s Total Economy and Its Structure from 2016–2035
1. Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China;
2. Institute of Innovation Environment Research, National Academy of Innovation Strate, Beijing 100863, China
Next Previous
Abstract
In this paper, we consider the main factors affecting the potential economic growth of China in the future and their transmission mechanism, in order to construct an economic system model and forecast the scale and structure of China’s economy over the next 20 years. In the benchmark scenario, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from 2016–2020, 2021–2025, 2026–2030, and 2031–2035 are 6.4 %, 5.6 %, 4.9 %, and 4.5 %, respectively. In 2035, China's GDP scale will be 10.06 times greater than in 2000, 3.99 times greater than in 2010, and 2.02 times greater than in 2020. Over the next 20 years, investment-driven economic growth will gradually change into a new stage of development that is led by consumption demand. In the face of slowing growth in developed economies and the gradual reduction of its domestic labor force, China needs to strengthen its research and education investment; improve investment efficiency, total factor productivity, and technological progress; promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry; and accelerate the tax reform of the financial system and the reform of the income distribution system.
References
[ 1 ] Kuijs L. China through 2020—A macroeconomic scenario. World Bank China Office Research Working Paper No.9 [EB/OL]. (2012-06-25) [2016-10-28].
[ 2 ] Li S T, Liu Y Z. China’s economy in 2030 [M]. Beijing: Economic Science Press, 2011. Chinese.
[ 3 ] O’Neill J, Stupnytska A. Goldman Sachs global economics, com-modities and strategy research: The long-term outlook for the BRICs and N-11 post crisis [R/OL]. (2009-12-04) [2016-10-30].
[ 4 ] HSBC Global Economics Research Team. The World in 2050: From the top 30 to the top 100 [R/OL]. (2012-01-11) [2016-11-30].
[ 5 ] Zhang P, Wang H M. China’s economic outlook into 2030: Trans-formation, simulation and policy suggestions [J]. China Econo-mist, 2011, 6 (4): 4–15. link1
[ 6 ] Yao Y. Why I am optimistic about China’s economic growth [EB/OL]. (2012-07-04) [2016-11-15]. Http://finance.ifeng.com/opin-ion/mssd/20120704/6704931.shtml. Chinese. link1
[ 7 ] Li P, Lou F. Supply side structural reform and China’s potential economic growth rate [J]. link1
[ 8 ] Lou F. The theory and application of Chinese economy-energy-en-vironment-tax dynamic computable general equilibrium model [M]. Beijing: China Social Sciences Press, 2015. Chinese. link1
[ 9 ] Zhang H, LOU F. The reasons for the rapid recovery of the Ger-man economy from the financial crisis and its enlightenment [J]. Modern Economic Research, 2015, 10 (5): 79–82. Chinese. link1
京公网安备 11010502051620号
