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Strategic Study of CAE >> 2018, Volume 20, Issue 5 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.020

Prediction of Food Consumption and Grain Demand in Chinese Mainland

Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Funding project:CAE Advisory Project “Research on Key Strategic Issues of Agricultural Resource and Environment in China” (2016-ZD-10) Received: 2018-09-10 Revised: 2018-09-20 Available online: 2018-11-30

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Abstract

Now consumption of main food in Taiwan of China has been stable. It is most likely that Chinese Mainland will follow the progressive path of food consumption in Taiwan of China. The total dietary consumption of Chinese Mainland residents will reach the summit around 2026, so will the consumption of food with high added values, such as fruit, meat, egg, aquatic products, dairy products, and oil. Total dietary consumption will be 563 kg per capita, and grain consumption will be 456 kg per capita. The structure of dietary consumption will reach a table state by 2035, and total dietary consumption and grain consumption will be 499 kg per capita and 412 kg per capita, respectively. Dietary consumption of Chinese Mainland residents has great potentials for promotion, which will exert long and continuous pressure on China’s limited land and water resources.

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