2019, Volume 21, Issue 5
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2019, Volume 21, Issue 5 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.05.015
Modern Agricultural Transformation and Trend of Food Supply and Demand in China
1. China Center for Agricultural Policy, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
2. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
3. Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing 100088, China
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Abstract
This study aims to clarify the direction for agricultural transformation, the transformation path of production, and the trend of food supply and demand in China, and to propose development strategies and policy suggestions for China's agriculture transformation. Facing six major challenges in agricultural development, China should further promote supply-side structural reform for its agriculture, optimize production structure, improve the supply and demand of agricultural products, and upgrade the quality of these products. After analyzing the panel data of farmer surveys, we propose to promote China’s modern agricultural transformation by improving the land transfer market and the socialized service system. Our projection analyses indicate that the imbalance between supply and demand of many agricultural products in China will be prominent by 2035. China’s feed self-sufficiency rate will continue to decline, and the demand gap for sugar and edible oil will gradually expand. The production of livestock products and the gap between supply and demand will largely depend on the feed grain trade policy and the grassland development policy, while vegetables and fruits still maintain a certain export comparative advantage.
Keywords
agricultural production structure ; food security ; supply ; demand
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References
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