2022, Volume 24, Issue 1
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2022, Volume 24, Issue 1 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.01.002
Development Visions and Policies of China’s Agriculture by 2050
1. China Center for Agricultural Policy, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;
3. Center for Strategic Studies, Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing 100088, China;
4. Institute of Crop Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Next Previous
Abstract
To achieve common prosperity, we need to equalize the labor productivity in agriculture with that in other non-agricultural sectors. China’s agricultural labor productivity is less than 1/3 of that in the manufacturing and service industries. Our analysis on the trend of agricultural development suggests that it is essential to raise the agricultural labor productivity through internal labor division to ensure national food security. The breeding industry needs to transform toward scaled and modernized development and the planting industry needs to change to a new pattern—20% of large-scale farmers produce 80% of agricultural products or contribute 20% of added value while 80% of small-scale farmers produce 20% of agricultural products or contribute 80% of added value. Large-scale farmers mainly produce bulk agricultural products including grain to ensure food security while small-scale farmers develop highvalue agriculture to ensure income growth. Eventually, the labor productivity of large- and small-scale farmers will converge to achieve common prosperity, which is inevitable for China’s agricultural development and is an ideal vision in line with national realities. However, the task of transforming to the new pattern is arduous, and the government needs to make major strategic deployments and introduce corresponding safeguards and incentive measures. Particularly, it is necessary to establish a policy support system for large- and small-scale farmers, accelerate the progress of urban-rural integrated development, improve the land transfer markets, optimize the innovative system of agricultural science and technology as well as the human capacity building system, and establish an organizational guarantee system to realize agricultural modernization.
Figures
Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
References
[ 1 ] Huang J K. Forty years of China’s agricultural development and reform and the way forward in the future [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018 (3): 4–15. Chinese. link1
[ 2 ] Wang S L, Huang J K, Wang X B, et al. Are China’s regional agricultural productivities converging: How and why? [J]. Food Policy, 2019, 86: 1–12. link1
[ 3 ] Huang J K, Shi P F. Pathway, consequences and driving forces of rapid and inclusive rural transformation [J]. Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China, 2021, 35(3): 394–401. Chinese. link1
[ 4 ] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2021—2030 [EB/OL]. (2021-05-15) [2021-11-01]. link1
[ 5 ] Yin, J H, Gu G D. Analysis on China’s mid-and long-term food supply and demand trend [J]. Journal of South China Agricultural University (Social Science Edition), 2015, 14 (2): 76–83. Chinese. link1
[ 6 ] Li S P, Dong Y Q, Zhang L X, et al. Off-farm employment and poverty alleviation in rural China [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(4): 943–952. link1
[ 7 ] Zhang L X, Dong Y Q, Liu C F, et al. Off-farm employment over the past four decades in rural China [J]. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2018, 10(2): 190–214. link1
[ 8 ] Lu F, Yan Y W. Measurement of factors behind the decline of the agricultural labor share in total labor force of China (1990—2030) [J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2012 (4): 13–24. Chinese. link1
[ 9 ] Hu R F. The technological revolution in agriculture: Past and future [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 1998 (3): 2–11. Chinese. link1
[10] Huang J K, Rozelle S. China’s grain economy toward the 21st century [M]. Beijing: China’s Agricultural Press, 1998. Chinese.
[11] Fan S G. Effects of technological change and institutional reform on production growth in China agriculture [J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1991, 73(2): 266–275. link1
[12] Zhao H Z. Crop breeding [M]. Beijing: China’s Agricultural Press, 1979. Chinese.
[13] Lin S C, Min S K. Rice varieties and their genealogy in China [M]. Shanghai: Shanghai Scientific & Technical Publishers, 1991. Chinese.
[14] Dai X F. Development strategy of plant protection science and technology [D]. Beijing: China Academy of Agricultural Sciences(Doctoral dissipation), 2003. Chinese. link1
[15] Fen X. Preliminary thinking on developing smart agriculture in Shanghai [J]. Shanghai Rural Economy, 2018 (9): 10–11. Chinese. link1
[16] Liu M S. Research on agricultural industrialization strategy in Dongting Lake District: Agricultural modernization road in main agricultural production areas [J]. Journal of Wuling, 2011, 36(6): 74–81. Chinese. link1
[17] Li J H, Guo Q. Characteristics analysis and policy suggestions of the new generation and new migrant workers [J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2011, 32(3): 42–45. Chinese. link1
[18] Wang C G. Understanding of the urban integration problem of the new generation of migrant workers [J]. Population Research, 2010, 34(2): 31–34. Chinese. link1
[19] Xiang, J Q, Zhou C Y. Evolution and policy choices of new three rural issues [J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2017 (10): 13–25. Chinese. link1
[20] Yao G Y, Liu S H. A investigation of the aging farmers problem and agriculture inanition problem [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(S3): 327–330. Chinese. link1
[21] Bureau of Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. Educational attainment for workers 25 years and older by detailed occupation [EB/OL]. [2021-09-08]. link1
[22] Fan Y, Li M X. Research status of future farmers and its prospects, contemporary [J]. Contemporary Economy & Management, 2013 (8): 57–61. Chinese. link1
[23] Eurostat. Archive: Farmers in the EU - statistics [EB/OL]. [2017-08-01]. link1
[24] Wu Z M. Review, hot spots and trend of research on farmers’ vocational education and training in the process of professionalization [J]. Adult Education, 2021, 41(3): 58–66. Chinese. link1
京公网安备 11010502051620号
