2022年 第24卷 第1期
《中国工程科学》 >> 2022年 第24卷 第1期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.01.003
面向 2050 年我国农业资源平衡与国际进口潜力研究
1. 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所，北京 100081；
2. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所，北京 100081；
3. 中国农业科学院，北京 100081
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摘要
受农业高质量发展、食物消费结构转型升级、气候变化的多重影响，我国农业资源供需平衡日益趋紧，因而统筹利用国际国内两种资源、两个市场，保障我国中长期粮食安全至关重要。本文在对比分析国内、国际农业资源的基础上，研究了我国2035 年和2050 年的粮食消费需求、消费结构、供给结构，分析了未来农业资源供需缺口以及虚拟水、虚拟耕地的可进口潜力与进口来源地，据此展望了我国农业水土资源利用的目标。研究表明：我国虚拟耕地进口将在2048 年前后达到峰值，需进口虚拟耕地近6.147×107 hm2；虚拟水进口量在2045 年前后达到峰值，虚拟水进口量为1.136×108 m3（以蓝水估算），约为2017 年全国农业总用水量的30%；可增加的耕地进口潜力主要来自南美洲和非洲。
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