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《中国工程科学》 >> 2022年 第24卷 第1期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.01.013

新形势下黄河水沙调控策略研究

1. 中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038;

2. 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038

资助项目 :中国工程院咨询项目“黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略研究”(2020-ZD-18) 收稿日期: 2021-12-16 修回日期: 2022-01-05 发布日期: 2022-02-22

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摘要

黄河水沙调控对保障黄河长久安澜至关重要。近几十年来,受自然因素和水土保持等人类活动的双重影响,黄河来水来沙量持续发生变化,水资源量略有减少、来沙量锐减,为此,科学研判未来黄河来水来沙量是制定水沙调控策略最基础、最关键的科学问题。本文分析了1919—2020 年百年尺度下的黄河来水来沙量的演变情况,并预测了未来50 年的黄河来水来沙量;系统总结了目前黄河水沙调控面临的主要问题,即黄河上游河道淤积萎缩、黄河下游滩区治理策略与高质量发展要求不适应、黄土高原水土流失治理区域不均衡等。在此基础上,提出了新水沙条件下的黄河水沙调控策略建议,一是以黄河上游黑山峡河段开发和古贤水利枢纽建设为重点,完善水沙调控体系;二是黄河下游滩区分区治理、改造河道并释放部分滩区,实现滩区防洪运用与高质量发展的协同;三是科学开展黄土高原分区分类水土保持措施,调整黄土高原治理格局,协同推进生态保护和乡村振兴。

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