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Projections of heat-related excess mortality in China due to climate change, population and aging

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第11期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1732-y

摘要：

● Four scenarios were used to project heat-related excess mortality in China.

关键词： Heat-related excess mortality     LMDI     Aging     YLL     VSLY    

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Association of cardiac disease with the risk of post-lung transplantation mortality in Chinese recipients

《医学前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第1期   页码 58-67 doi: 10.1007/s11684-022-0937-y

摘要： The current organ allocation rules prioritize elderly and urgent patients on the lung transplantation (LT) waiting list. A steady increase in the threshold at which age is taken into consideration for LT has been observed. This retrospective cohort study recruited 166 lung transplant recipients aged ≥ 65 years between January 2016 and October 2020 in the largest LT center in China. In the cohort, subgroups of patients aged 65–70 years (111 recipients, group 65–70) and ≥ 70 years (55 recipients, group ≥ 70) were included. Group D restrictive lung disease was the main indication of a lung transplant in recipients over 65 years. A significantly higher percentage of coronary artery stenosis was observed in the group ≥ 70 (30.9% vs. 14.4% in group 65–70, P = 0.014). ECMO bridging to LT was performed in 5.4% (group 65–70) and 7.3% (group ≥ 70) of patients. Kaplan–Meier estimates showed that recipients with cardiac abnormalities had a significantly increased risk of mortality. After adjusting for potential confounders, cardiac abnormality was shown to be independently associated with the increased risk of post-LT mortality (HR 6.37, P = 0.0060). Our result showed that LT can be performed in candidates with an advanced age and can provide life-extending benefits.

关键词： cardiac disease     mortality     aged population     lung transplantation    

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The main and added effects of heat on mortality in 33 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2013

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第7期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1681-5

摘要：

● The main and added effect from heat co-existed in China.

关键词： Heat     Main effect     Added effect     Mortality     Vulnerable population    

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Temporal trend of mortality from major cancers in Xuanwei, China

null

《医学前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第4期   页码 487-495 doi: 10.1007/s11684-015-0413-z

摘要：

Although a number of studies have examined the etiology of lung cancer in Xuanwei County, China, other types of cancer in this county have not been reported systematically. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend of eight major cancers in Xuanwei County using data from three mortality surveys (1973–1975, 1990–1992, and 2004–2005). The Chinese population in 1990 was used as a standard population to calculate age-standardized mortality rates. Cancers of lung, liver, breast, brain, esophagus, leukemia, rectum, and stomach were identified as the leading cancers in this county in terms of mortality rate. During the three time periods, lung cancer remained as the most common type of cancer. The mortality rates for all other types of cancer were lower than those of the national average, but an increasing trend was observed for all the cancers, particularly from 1990–1992 to 2004–2005. The temporal trend could be partly explained by changes in risk factors, but it also may be due to the improvement in cancer diagnosis and screening. Further epidemiological studies are warranted to systematically examine the underlying reasons for the temporal trend of the major cancers in Xuanwei County.

关键词： cancer     mortality     Xuanwei     temporal trend    

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Renin--angiotensin system inhibitor is associated with the reduced risk of all-cause mortality in COVID

《医学前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第1期   页码 102-110 doi: 10.1007/s11684-021-0850-9

摘要： Consecutively hospitalized patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China were retrospectively enrolled from January 2020 to March 2020 to investigate the association between the use of renin–angiotensin system inhibitor (RAS-I) and the outcome of this disease. Associations between the use of RAS-I (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)), ACEI, and ARB and in-hospital mortality were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models in overall and subgroup of hypertension status. A total of 2771 patients with COVID-19 were included, with moderate and severe cases accounting for 45.0% and 36.5%, respectively. A total of 195 (7.0%) patients died. RAS-I (hazard ratio (HR)=0.499, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.325–0.767) and ARB (HR=0.410, 95% CI 0.240–0.700) use was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality among patients with COVID-19. For patients with hypertension, RAS-I and ARB applications were also associated with a reduced risk of mortality with HR of 0.352 (95% CI 0.162–0.764) and 0.279 (95% CI 0.115–0.677), respectively. RAS-I exhibited protective effects on the survival outcome of COVID-19. ARB use was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality among patients with COVID-19.

关键词： COVID-19     RAS inhibitor     hypertension     all-cause mortality    

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logistically derived additive prediction model for post-coronary artery bypass grafting in-hospital mortality

null

《医学前沿（英文）》 2013年 第7卷 第4期   页码 477-485 doi: 10.1007/s11684-013-0284-0

摘要：

This study aims to construct a logistically derived additive score for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in Chinese patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Data from 9839 consecutive CABG patients in 43 Chinese centers were collected between 2007 and 2008 from the Chinese Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Registry. This database was randomly divided into developmental and validation subsets (9:1). The data in the developmental dataset were used to develop the model using logistic regression. Calibration and discrimination characteristics were assessed using the validation dataset. Thresholds were defined for each model to distinguish different risk groups. After excluding 275 patients with incomplete information, the overall mortality rate of the remaining 9564 patients was 2.5%. The SinoSCORE model was constructed based on 11 variables: age, preoperative NYHA stage III or IV, chronic renal failure, extracardiac arteriopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, preoperative atrial fibrillation or flutter (within 2βweeks), left ventricular ejection fraction, other elective surgery, combined valve procedures, preoperative critical state, and BMI. In the developmental dataset, calibration using a Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was at =β0.44 and discrimination based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.80. In the validation dataset, the HL test was at =β0.34 and the area under the ROC (AUC) was 0.78. A logistically derived additive model for predicting in-hospital mortality among Chinese patients undergoing CABG was developed based on the most up-to-date multi-center data from China.

关键词： coronary artery bypass grafting     risk stratification     in-hospital mortality    

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Hydrothermal carbonization of livestock mortality for the reduction of pathogens and microbially-derived

Thomas F. Ducey, Jessica C. Collins, Kyoung S. Ro, Bryan L. Woodbury, D. Dee Griffin

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2017年 第11卷 第3期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-017-0930-x

摘要： Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC), utilizing high temperature and pressure, has the potential to treat agricultural waste via inactivating pathogens, antibiotic resistance genes (ARG), and contaminants of emerging concern (CEC) in a environmental and economical manner. Livestock mortality is one facet of agricultural waste that can pose a threat to the surrounding environment. While several methods are utilized to treat livestock mortality, there remains a paucity of data on the elimination of microbially-derived DNA in these treatment practices. This DNA, most notably ARGs, if it survives treatment can be reintroduced in agricultural environments where it could potentially be passed to pathogens, posing a risk to animal and human populations. HTC treatments have been successfully utilized for the treatment of CECs, however very little is understood on how ARGs survive HTC treatment. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap by examining the survivability of microbially-derived DNA in the HTC treatment of livestock mortality. We examined three treatment temperatures (100°C, 150°C, and 200°C) at autogenic pressures at three treatment times (30, 60, and 240 min). We examined the amplification of a plasmid-borne reporter gene carried by DH10B introduced to both beef bone and tissue. Results indicate that while all three temperatures, at all treatment times, were suitable for complete pathogen kill, only temperatures of 150°C and 200°C were sufficient for eliminating microbial DNA. These results serve as the basis for future potential HTC treatment recommendations for livestock mortality when considering the elimination of pathogens and ARGs.

关键词： High-temperature carbonization     Microbial DNA     Livestock mortality    

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Association between ICU quality and in-hospital mortality of V-V ECMO-supported patients—the ECMO quality

《医学前沿（英文）》 doi: 10.1007/s11684-023-1014-x

摘要： This cohort study was performed to explore the influence of intensive care unit (ICU) quality on in-hospital mortality of veno-venous (V-V) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)-supported patients in China. The study involved all V-V ECMO-supported patients in 318 of 1700 tertiary hospitals from 2017 to 2019, using data from the National Clinical Improvement System and China National Critical Care Quality Control Center. ICU quality was assessed by quality control indicators and capacity parameters. Among the 2563 V-V ECMO-supported patients in 318 hospitals, a significant correlation was found between ECMO-related complications and prognosis. The reintubation rate within 48 hours after extubation and the total ICU mortality rate were independent risk factors for higher in-hospital mortality of V-V ECMO-supported patients (cutoff: 1.5% and 7.0%; 95% confidence interval: 1.05–1.48 and 1.04–1.45; odds ratios: 1.25 and 1.23; P = 0.012 and P = 0.015, respectively). Meanwhile, the V-V ECMO center volume was a protective factor (cutoff of ≥ 50 cases within the 3-year study period; 95% confidence interval: 0.57–0.83, odds ratio: 0.69, P = 0.0001). The subgroup analysis of 864 patients in 11 high-volume centers further strengthened these findings. Thus, ICU quality may play an important role in improving the prognosis of V-V ECMO-supported patients.

关键词： veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation     in-hospital mortality     high-volume centers     quality control     intensive care unit capacity parameters    

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Clinical characteristics and risk factors for mortality in cancer patients with COVID-19

Junnan Liang, Guannan Jin, Tongtong Liu, Jingyuan Wen, Ganxun Li, Lin Chen, Wei Wang, Yuwei Wang, Wei Liao, Jia Song, Zeyang Ding, Xiao-ping Chen, Bixiang Zhang

《医学前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第2期   页码 264-274 doi: 10.1007/s11684-021-0845-6

摘要： Patients with cancer are at increased risk of severe infections. From a cohort including 3060 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 109 (3.4%) cancer patients were included in this study. Among them, 23 (21.1%) patients died in the hospital. Cancer patients, especially those with hematological malignancies (41.6%), urinary carcinoma (35.7%), malignancies of the digestive system (33.3%), gynecological malignancies (20%), and lung cancer (14.3%), had a much higher mortality than patients without cancer. A total of 19 (17.4%) cancer patients were infected in the hospital. The clinical characteristics of deceased cancer patients were compared with those of recovered cancer patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that a Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS2002) score≥3 (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 11.00; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.60–26.32; <0.001), high-risk type (adjusted HR 18.81; 95% CI 4.21–83.93; <0.001), tumor stage IV (adjusted HR 4.26; 95% CI 2.34–7.75; <0.001), and recent adjuvant therapy (<1 month) (adjusted HR 3.16; 95% CI 1.75–5.70; <0.01) were independent risk factors for in-hospital death after adjusting for age, comorbidities, D-dimer, and lymphocyte count. In conclusion, cancer patients showed a higher risk of COVID-19 infection with a poorer prognosis than patients without cancer. Cancer patients with high-risk tumor, NRS2002 score≥3, advanced tumor stage, and recent adjuvant therapy (<1 month) may have high risk of mortality.

关键词： cancer     COVID-19     SARS-CoV-2     risk factor     mortality    

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Chinese herbal medicine reduces mortality in patients with severe and critical coronavirus disease 2019

Guohua Chen, Wen Su, Jiayao Yang, Dan Luo, Ping Xia, Wen Jia, Xiuyang Li, Chuan Wang, Suping Lang, Qingbin Meng, Ying Zhang, Yuhe Ke, An Fan, Shuo Yang, Yujiao Zheng, Xuepeng Fan, Jie Qiao, Fengmei Lian, Li Wei, Xiaolin Tong

《医学前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第6期   页码 752-759 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0813-6

摘要： This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in patients with severe/critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this retrospective study, data were collected from 662 patients with severe/critical COVID-19 who were admitted to a designated hospital to treat patients with severe COVID-19 in Wuhan before March 20, 2020. All patients were divided into an exposed group (CHM users) and a control group (non-users). After propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio, 156 CHM users were matched by propensity score to 156 non-users. No significant differences in seven baseline clinical variables were found between the two groups of patients. All-cause mortality was reported in 13 CHM users who died and 36 non-users who died. After multivariate adjustment, the mortality risk of CHM users was reduced by 82.2% (odds ratio 0.178, 95% CI 0.076–0.418; <0.001) compared with the non-users. Secondly, age (odds ratio 1.053, 95% CI 1.023–1.084; <0.001) and the proportion of severe/critical patients (odds ratio 0.063, 95% CI 0.028–0.143; <0.001) were the risk factors of mortality. These results show that the use of CHM may reduce the mortality of patients with severe/critical COVID-19.

关键词： COVID-19     CHM     mortality     a retrospective cohort study    

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The “Traditional Chinese medicine regulating liver regeneration” treatment plan for reducing mortality

Ling Dai, Xiang Gao, Zhihua Ye, Hanmin Li, Xin Yao, Dingbo Lu, Na Wu

《医学前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第3期   页码 495-505 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0790-9

摘要： On the basis of real-world clinical data, the study aimed to explore the effect and mechanisms of the treatment plan of “traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) regulating liver regeneration.” A total of 457 patients with HBV-related liver failure were retrospectively collected. The patients were divided into three groups: the modern medicine control group (MMC group), patients treated with routine medical treatment; the control group combining traditional Chinese and Western medicine (CTW), patients treated with routine medical treatment plus the common TCM formula; and the treatment group of “TCM regulating liver regeneration” (RLR), patients treated with both routine medical treatment and the special TCM formula of RLR. After 8 weeks of treatment, the mortality of patients in the RLR group (12.31%) was significantly lower than those in the MMC (50%) and CTW (29.11%) groups. Total bilirubin level significantly decreased and albumin increased in the RLR group when compared with the MMC and CTW groups ( <0.05). In addition, there were significant differences in the expression of several cytokines related to liver regeneration in the RLR group compared with the MMC group. RLR treatment can decrease jaundice, improve liver function, and significantly reduce the mortality in patients with HBV-related liver failure. The mechanism may be related to the role of RLR treatment in influencing cytokines related to liver regeneration.

关键词： hepatitis B virus-related liver failure     traditional Chinese medicine     liver regeneration     liver regeneration microenvironment     cytokines    

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综合空气污染和非适宜温度相关死亡风险构建空气健康指数 Article

张庆丽, 陈仁杰, 印冠锦, 杜喜浩, 孟夏, 邱杨, 阚海东, 周脉耕

《工程（英文）》 2022年 第14卷 第7期   页码 156-162 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.05.006

摘要：

综合的空气健康指数有助于强调多种大气危险因素的健康风险，有利于向公众传达不良大气环境的总体风险。本文试图通过整合我国大气污染和非适宜温度相关的每日死亡风险，建立一种新的空气健康指数（Air Health Index, AHI）。本研究从时间序列模型中获得了暴露-反应系数，通过将 2013—2015 年我国 272个城市大气污染物与非适宜温度相关的超额死亡风险求和，构建了新的AHI。估计了基于总死亡率构建的AHI（“总AHI”）与全死因死亡率的关系，并进一步比较了“总AHI”与“特异性AHI”（基于疾病别死 亡率构建）在预测心肺系统疾病死亡率方面的能力。研究发现，空气污染和非适宜温度与28.23%的每日超额死亡率有关，其中23.47%与非适宜温度有关，其余的与PM2.5（1.12%）、NO2（2.29%）和O3（ 2.29%）有关。新的AHI采用了10分制的评分标准，272座城市的平均AHI为6分。AHI与死亡率关系的暴露-反应曲线呈线性，不存在阈值。“总AHI”每增加一个单位，全死因死亡率增加0.84%，心血管疾病、冠心病、中风、呼吸系统疾病和慢性阻塞性肺疾病的死亡率分别增加1.01%、0.98%、1.02%、1.66%和1.71%。使用“总AHI”估计疾病别死亡率风险与使用“特异性AHI”预测的疾病别死亡率风险相似。综上所述，本研究提出的“总AHI”可能是一种有前途的风险交流工具，有利于向公众传达与大气环境有关的健康风险。

关键词： 大气污染     温度     空气健康指数     死亡     时间序列     风险交流    

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Risk stratification system for skin and soft tissue infections after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: PAH risk score

《医学前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第6期   页码 957-968 doi: 10.1007/s11684-021-0910-1

摘要： Skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) refer to infections involving the skin, subcutaneous tissue, fascia, and muscle. In transplant populations with hematological malignancies, an immunocompromised status and the routine use of immunosuppressants increase the risk of SSTIs greatly. However, to date, the profiles and clinical outcomes of SSTIs in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients remain unclear. This study included 228 patients (3.67%) who developed SSTIs within 180 days after allogeneic HSCT from January 2004 to December 2019 in Peking University People’s Hospital. The overall annual survival rate was 71.5%. We compared the differences between survivors and non-survivors a year after transplant and found that primary platelet graft failure (PPGF), comorbidities of acute kidney injury (AKI), and hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) were independent risk factors for death in the study population. A PPGF–AKI–HAP risk stratification system was established with a mortality risk score of 1×PPGF+1×AKI+1×HAP. The areas under the curves of internal and external validation were 0.833 (95% CI 0.760–0.906) and 0.826 (95% CI 0.715–0.937), respectively. The calibration plot revealed the high consistency of the estimated risks, and decision curve analysis showed considerable net benefits for patients.

关键词： skin and soft tissue infections     hematopoietic stem cell transplantation     risk stratification system     mortality    

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Cross-sectional prevalence and pattern of non-anaemia severe malaria among 2–10 year olds in Sokoto in Northwestern Nigeria

《医学前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第6期   页码 969-974 doi: 10.1007/s11684-021-0912-z

摘要： Malaria is highly prevalent in Nigeria and accounts for approximately 40% of global malaria mortality. However, most reports on severe malaria in Nigeria are from hospital-based studies without accurate information from communities; thus, malaria-related deaths in the community are left untracked. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and pattern of severe malaria in a community in Northwestern Nigeria. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 2–10-year-old children in Sokoto, in August and December 2016, to determine the endemicity of malaria based on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence rate (PfPR2-10) and to describe the disease pattern. Severe malaria was diagnosed according to the World Health Organisation criteria. Data were described using Stata version 15. The prevalence of non-anaemia severe malaria was higher than expected (2.6%), considering the endemicity pattern which was mesoendemic based on a PfPR2-10 of 34.8%. The mean age of children with severe malaria was 3.73 years, and the male–female ratio was 2:1. However, 54.0% of the patients had hyperparasitaemia. A relatively high prevalence of non-anaemia severe malaria was found in Wamakko. This finding suggests the need to identify and treat cases in the community using modifications of current strategies, particularly seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis.

关键词： severe malaria     nigeria     malaria mortality     PfPR2-10     intermediate malaria transmission    

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糖尿病前期成年人综合健康生活方式与糖尿病、心血管疾病、癌症和死亡的关联——中美英四队列研究 Article

涂周正, 卢琪, 张言博, 舒哲, 赖雨薇, 马梦男, 夏鹏飞, 耿婷婷, 陈俊祥, 李越, 吴林晶, 欧阳静, 戎志, 丁雄, 韩旭, 陈朔华, 何美安, 张晓敏, 刘烈刚, 邬堂春, 吴寿岭, 刘刚, 潘安

《工程（英文）》 2023年 第22卷 第3期   页码 141-148 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2022.04.010

摘要：

在糖尿病前期人群中，采取健康的生活方式可以有效预防糖尿病的发生。然而，健康生活方式与心血管疾病（cardiovascular disease, CVD）、癌症和死亡的长期风险之间的关联尚不清晰。本文旨在探究糖尿病前期人群中综合健康生活方式与上述多种健康结局之间的关联。本研究纳入的121 254 名糖尿病前期研究对象来自以下4 个前瞻性队列，包括中国的东风-同济（Dongfeng-Tongji, DFTJ）队列和开滦研究，英国生物银行（UK Biobank, UKB）和美国的国家健康与营养调查（National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, NHANES；仅用于死亡分析）。随访期间，共诊断了18 333 例新发糖尿病病例、10 829 例新发心血管疾病病例、6926 例新发癌症病例和9877 例全因死亡。本文基于5 个因素（从不吸烟或戒烟超过10 年、适量饮酒、充足的体力活动、健康膳食和理想的腰围）构建综合健康生活方式评分。各因素均被分为健康水平（赋1 分）和不健康水平（赋0 分），评分的加和为综合健康生活方式评分（0~5 分）。首先，采用Cox比例风险回归模型计算每个队列中综合健康生活方式评分与健康结局之间的关联；然后，通过随机效应模型的荟萃分析合并各独立队列结果的多变量校正的风险比（hazard ratio, HR）和95% 置信区间（confidence interval, CI）。与生活方式最不健康（评分为0~1 分）的研究对象相比，生活方式最健康（评分为4~5 分）的研究对象具有更低的糖尿病、心血管疾病、癌症和死亡风险，合并的HR（95% CI）分别为0.57（0.48~0.69）、0.67（0.62~0.73）、0.80（0.73~0.88）和0.54（0.42~0.70）。根据研究对象的基线人口学特征和代谢健康状况进行亚组分析的结果也与主要分析的结果一致。总而言之，本研究对来自三个国家的4个队列的合并分析表明，在糖尿病前期人群中，坚持更健康的生活方式与糖尿病及主要并发症的发生风险降低有关。本研究的发现为临床指南和公共卫生政策提供了可靠证据。

关键词： 糖尿病前期     生活方式     糖尿病     心血管疾病     癌症     死亡    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Projections of heat-related excess mortality in China due to climate change, population and aging

期刊论文

Association of cardiac disease with the risk of post-lung transplantation mortality in Chinese recipients

期刊论文

The main and added effects of heat on mortality in 33 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2013

期刊论文

Temporal trend of mortality from major cancers in Xuanwei, China

null

期刊论文

Renin--angiotensin system inhibitor is associated with the reduced risk of all-cause mortality in COVID

期刊论文

logistically derived additive prediction model for post-coronary artery bypass grafting in-hospital mortality

null

期刊论文

Hydrothermal carbonization of livestock mortality for the reduction of pathogens and microbially-derived

Thomas F. Ducey, Jessica C. Collins, Kyoung S. Ro, Bryan L. Woodbury, D. Dee Griffin

期刊论文

Association between ICU quality and in-hospital mortality of V-V ECMO-supported patients—the ECMO quality

期刊论文

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for mortality in cancer patients with COVID-19

Junnan Liang, Guannan Jin, Tongtong Liu, Jingyuan Wen, Ganxun Li, Lin Chen, Wei Wang, Yuwei Wang, Wei Liao, Jia Song, Zeyang Ding, Xiao-ping Chen, Bixiang Zhang

期刊论文

Chinese herbal medicine reduces mortality in patients with severe and critical coronavirus disease 2019

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