2019, Volume 21, Issue 1
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2019, Volume 21, Issue 1 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.01.018
Development Strategy of Phosphate Rock in China Under Global Allocation of Resources
1. Information Center of Ministry of Natural Resources of the PRC, Beijing 100812, China;
2. Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
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Abstract
In this paper, the sigmoid growth curve model is adopted to predict the future demand for phosphate rock resources in China under high- and low-demand scenarios. Data shows that the total demand for phosphate rocks in China will reach approximately 2.2-2.7 billion tons between 2017 and 2050. This demand can be met by domestic supply. At the same time, the relation between the status quo and demand of the phosphate rock resource is analyzed according to its current production status. Analysis shows that China’s phosphorus resources have a serious overcapacity. With 4.7% of the world’s phosphorus reserves, China is now supplying phosphorus rocks to more than 50% of the global market. The development intensity of China’s phosphorus rocks is too high. In this way, China’s phosphorus rock resources will become short after 2050. To guarantee a sustainable supply of China’s phosphate rock resources in future and thus ensure food security, China should exercise strict control over domestic production capacity and limit production, and make the best of the global allocation of resources to develop foreign resources.
Keywords
phosphate rock ; nonrenewable ; phosphate fertilizer ; cumulative demand ; shortage resource
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