Strategic Study of CAE >> 2022, Volume 24, Issue 1 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.01.004
Trends of Global Agriculture and Prospects of China’s Agriculture Toward 2050
China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences of Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Next Previous
Abstract
This article reviews China’s agricultural development history and prospects China’s agricultural development by 2050 considering the implications of global agricultural development trends on China’s agriculture. The transformations of the overall economic structure and the rural economy should be combined to enhance agricultural labor productivity and promote the rapid development of agriculture. By 2050, the share of agriculture GDP in China’s total economy and the share of agricultural employment in China's total employment will reach convergency gradually. China’s food self-sufficiency rate will drop from the current 95% to about 90% in 2035 and will further drop by 2050. High-value agricultural products and multifunctional agriculture are the major driving forces for future agricultural growth and income raise of farmers. The strategic priorities for realizing China’s agricultural modernization by 2050 include: (1) improving agricultural productivity and ensuring national food security; (2) maximizing the comparative advantages of agricultural products; (3) promoting green, high-efficiency, and high-value agriculture; (4) guaranteeing sustainable utilization of agricultural water and soil resources; and (5) guiding modern agricultural development through institutional, policy, and investment reforms. Salient policy recommendations include: (1) increasing investment in technology and infrastructure to improve agricultural productivity; (2) enhancing the development of advantageous agriculture and agriculture with large demand potentials based on ensuring food security; (3) improving the market environment by rectifying market failures to support the development of high-value agriculture; (4) maintaining the sustainable development of agriculture; and (5) optimizing the allocation of land, labor, capital, and other agricultural production factors.
Keywords
global agricultural development ; China’s agricultural outlook ; rural transformation ; food supply and demand forecast ; agricultural modernization
References
[ 1 ] Huang J K. Forty years of China’s agricultural development and reform and the way forward in the future [J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018 (3): 4–15.Chinese. link1
[ 2 ] Han J. China: Food security and agricultural going out strategy research [M]. Beijing: China Development Press, 2014.Chinese.
[ 3 ] UNCCD. Global Land Outlook 1st ed [R]. Bonn: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, 2017.
[ 4 ] UNEP. Global resources outlook 2019 [R]. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme, 2019.
[ 5 ] Keith F O, Wang S L, Eldon B V, et al. Productivity growth in agriculture: An international perspective [M]. Oxfordshire: CAB International, 2012.
[ 6 ] Xie L H, Wei G X, Mao S P. Change in China’s public agricultural R & D investment and its international comparison [J]. Science &Technology Progress and Policy, 2016, 33(2): 80-85.Chinese. link1
[ 7 ] Hussein K. IFAD research series 8—Fostering inclusive rural transformation in fragile states and situations [R]. Rome: International Fund for Agricultural Development, 2016.
[ 8 ] Rozelle S, Taylor J E, Debrauw A. Migration, remittances, and agricultural productivity in China [J]. American Economic Review, 1999, 89(2): 287-291. link1
[ 9 ] National Bureau of Statistics. China statistical yearbook 2018 [M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2018.Chinese.
[10] Ali T, Huang J K, Wang J X, et al. Global footprints on water and land resources through China’s food trade [J]. Global Food Security, 2017(12): 139-145. link1