Journal Home Online First Current Issue Archive For Authors Journal Information 中文版

Strategic Study of CAE >> 2023, Volume 25, Issue 4 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2023.04.008

Risk Identification and Control Strategies for Food Security Based on the Perspective of Whole Industrial Chain

1. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;

2. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Funding project:Chinese Academy of Engineering projects “Strategic Research on National Food Safety Risk Control”(2021-HZ-07) and “Strategic Research on Transformation of Agricultural Food System in the New Development Stage” (2022-HZ-07) Received: 2023-06-11 Revised: 2023-07-23 Available online: 2023-08-16

Next Previous

Abstract

Accurate identification and effective control of food security risks are crucial for national security. This study constructs a food security risk system that comprises nine major types of risk sources from the perspective of the entire industrial chain. Our research identifies seven main risks that China's food security faces at the new stage: relatively lagging breeding technologies, prominent contradiction between resource supply and demand, frequent disasters, significant decline in farmers' willingness to grow grains, increased uncontrollability of market trade, inadequacy in policy compliance and stability, and frequent impacts of unexpected events. Based on this, a strategic concept is proposed, that is, a food security risk management and control system that combines early identification, normal monitoring, and emergency warning and is capable of entire industrial chain risk identification, whole-process management, and multi-level linkage. Furthermore, the following strategies for controlling food security risks are proposed: (1) promoting food security legislation, (2) launching a key scientific and technological project for constructing a national food security risk control system, (3) improving infrastructure and defense systems, and (4) optimizing market-oriented means and tools for risk management. The research results are expected to provide decision-making references for promoting the modernization of China's food security governance system and capacities.

Figures

图1

图2

References

[ 1 ] 李雨凌 , 马雯秋 , 姜广辉 , 等‍‍ . 中国粮食主产区耕地撂荒程度及其对粮食产量的影响 [J]‍. 自然资源学报 , 2021 , 36 6 : 1439 ‒ 1454 ‍.
Li Y L , Ma W Q , Jiang G H , al e t ‍. The degree of cultivated land abandonment and its influence on grain yield in main grain producing areas of China [J]‍. Journal of Natural Resources , 2021 , 36 6 : 1439 ‒ 1454 ‍.

[ 2 ] 刘长全‍ . 我国重要农产品供给安全面临的挑战与对策 [J]‍. 经济纵横 , 2021 5 : 61 ‒ 73 ‍.
Liu C Q‍ . Challenges and strategies of the supply security of lmportant agricultural products in China [J]‍. Economic Review , 2021 5 : 61 ‒ 73 .

[ 3 ] 朱晶 , 李天祥 , 臧星月‍ . 高水平开放下我国粮食安全的非传统挑战及政策转型兴 [J]‍. 农业经济问题 , 2021 1 : 27 ‒ 40 ‍.
Zhu J , Li T X , Zang X Y‍ . Emerging challenges and coping strategies in China´s food security under the high-level opening up [J]‍. Agricultural Economic Issues , 2021 1 : 27 ‒ 40 ‍.

[ 4 ] 麻吉亮 , 孔维升 , 朱铁辉‍ . 农业灾害的特征、影响以及防灾减灾抗灾机制——基于文献综述视角 [J]‍. 中国农业大学学报: 社会科学版 , 2020 , 37 5 : 122 ‒ 129 ‍.
Ma J L , Kong W S , Zhu T H‍ . Characteristics, impacts of agricultural disaster, and mechanism of disaster prevention, mitigation and response―From the perspective of literature review [J]‍. Journal of China Agricultural University: Social Sciences Edition , 2020 , 37 5 : 122 ‒ 129 ‍.

[ 5 ] 钱永兰 , 毛留喜 , 周广胜‍ . 全球主要粮食作物产量变化及其气象灾害风险评估 [J]‍. 农业工程学报 , 2016 , 32 1 : 226 ‒ 235 ‍.
Qian Y L , Mao L X , Zhou G S‍ . Changes in global main crop yields and its meteorological risk assessment [J]‍. Journal of Agricultural Engineering , 2016 , 32 1 : 226 ‒ 235 ‍.

[ 6 ] 任世鑫 , 李二玲 , 邓晴晴 , 等‍ . 中国三大粮食作物化肥施用特征及环境风险评价 [J]‍. 长江流域资源与环境 , 2019 , 28 12 : 2936 ‒ 2947 ‍.
Ren S X , Li E L , Deng Q Q , al e t ‍. Characteristics of chemical fertilizer application and environmental risk assessment of three majorfood crops in China [J]‍. Resources and Environment of the Yangtze River Basin , 2019 , 28 12 : 2936 ‒ 2947 ‍.

[ 7 ] 王帅 , 赵秀梅‍ . 中国粮食流通与粮食安全: 关键节点的风险识别 [J]‍. 西北农林科技大学学报 社会科学版 , 2019 , 19 2 : 124 ‒ 132 ‍.
Wang S , Zhao X M‍ . Grain circulation and food security: Based on risk ldentification in key nodes [J]‍. Journal of Northwest A F University Social Science Edition , 2019 , 19 2 : 124 ‒ 132 ‍.

[ 8 ] 杨磊‍ . 我国粮食安全风险分析及粮食安全评价指标体系研究 [J]‍. 农业现代化研究 , 2014 , 35 6 : 696 ‒ 702 ‍.
Yang L‍ . Study on the risk analysis and the risk assessment index system of grain security in China [J]‍. Agricultural Modernization Research , 2014 , 35 6 : 696 ‒ 702 ‍.

[ 9 ] 鲍国良 , 姚蔚‍ . 我国粮食生产现状及面临的主要风险 [J]‍. 华南农业大学学报 社会科学版 , 2019 , 18 6 : 111 ‒ 120 ‍.
Bao G L , Yao W‍ . Current situation and main risks of grain production in China [J]‍. Journal of South China Agricultural University Social Science Edition , 2019 , 18 6 : 111 ‒ 120 ‍.

[10] 季翔 , 刘黎明 , 起晓星‍ . 区域耕地粮食生产保障能力及其风险评价方法 [J]‍. 农业工程学报 , 2014 , 30 7 : 219 ‒ 226 ‍.
Ji X , Liu L M , Qi X X‍ . Risk assessment method of grain production guarantee capacity of regional cultivated land [J]‍. Journal of Agricultural Engineering , 2014 , 30 7 : 219 ‒ 226 ‍.

[11] 苏小松 , 徐磊‍ . 中国粮食市场的巨灾效应及风险评估——基于局部均衡模型的模拟分析 [J]‍. 农业技术经济 , 2021 6 : 18 ‒ 32 ‍.
Su X S , Xu L‍ . Catastrophe effect and risk assessment of Chinese grain market—A simulation analysis based on partial equilibrium model [J]‍. Agricultural Technology and Economy , 2021 6 : 18 ‒ 32 ‍.

[12] 张峭 , 庹国柱 , 王克 , 等‍ . 中国农业风险管理体系的历史、现状和未来 [J]‍. 保险理论与实践 , 2020 7 : 1 ‒ 17 ‍.
Zhang Q , Tuo G Z , Wang K , al e t ‍. The history, current situation, and future of China´s agricultural risk management system [J]‍. Insurance Theory and Practice , 2020 7 : 1 ‒ 17 ‍.

[13] 马九杰 , 张象枢 , 顾海兵‍ . 粮食安全衡量及预警指标体系研究 [J]‍. 管理世界 , 2001 1 : 154 ‒ 162 ‍.
Ma J J , Zhang X S , Gu H B‍ . Research on the measurement and early warning indicator system for food security [J]‍. Management World , 2001 1 : 154 ‒ 162 ‍.

[14] 李梦觉 , 洪小峰‍ . 粮食安全预警系统和指标体系的构建 [J]‍. 经济纵横 , 2009 8 : 83 ‒ 85 ‍.
Li M J , Hong X F‍ . Construction of a food security early warning system and indicator system [J]‍. Economic Review , 2009 8 : 83 ‒ 85 ‍.

[15] 李国祥‍ . 论我国粮食安全风险及其管控 [J]‍. 当代经济管理 , 2014 , 36 5 : 38 ‒ 43 ‍.
Li G X‍ . On food security risks and their control in China [J]‍. Contemporary Economic Management , 2014 , 36 5 : 38 ‒ 43 ‍.

[16] 安毅 , 方蕊‍ . 发达经济体农业风险管理体系建设经验与启示 [J]‍. 经济纵横 , 2017 10 : 114 ‒ 121 ‍.
An Y , Fang R‍ . Experience and enlightenment of agricultural risk management system construction in developed economies [J]‍. Economic Review , 2017 10 : 114 ‒ 121 ‍.

[17] 卞靖‍ . 未来15年中国粮食安全面临的主要风险及应对思路 [J]‍. 经济纵横 , 2019 5 : 119 ‒ 128 ‍.
Bian J‍ . The main risks and countermeasures for China´s food security in the next 15 years [J]‍. Economic Review , 2019 5 : 119 ‒ 128 ‍.

[18] 郭德海‍ . 以风险监测为核心建立粮食质量安全多功能技术服务平台 [J]‍. 中国粮食经济 , 2014 7 : 56 ‒ 58 ‍.
Guo D H‍ . Establishing a multi-functional technical service platform for grain quality and safety with risk monitoring as the core [J]‍. China Grain Economy , 2014 7 : 56 ‒ 58 ‍.

[19] 金亚男 , 张时琪 , 郑双怡‍ . 基于PSR模型的粮食安全风险评估及保障措施——以长江中下游粮食主产区为例 [J]‍. 农村经济 , 2021 7 : 42 ‒ 49 ‍.
Jin Y N , Zhang S Q , Zheng S Y‍ . Food security risk assessment and guarantee measures based on the PSR model: A case study of the main grain producing areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [J]‍. Rural Economy , 2021 7 : 42 ‒ 49 ‍.

[20] 门可佩 , 魏百军 , 唐沙沙 , 等‍ . 基于AHP-GRA集成的中国粮食安全预警研究 [J]‍. 统计与决策 , 2009 20 : 96 ‒ 98 ‍.
Men K P , Wei B J , Tang S S , al e t ‍. Research on China´s food security early warning based on AHP-GRA integration [J]‍. Statistics and Decision , 2009 20 : 96 ‒ 98 ‍.

[21] 郭林涛‍ . 新时代构建粮食安全风险防御长效机制研究 [J]‍. 河南社会科学 , 2021 , 29 7 : 60 ‒ 67 ‍.
Guo L T‍ . Research on building a long-term mechanism of food security risk defense in the new period [J]‍. Henan Social Sciences , 2021 , 29 7 : 60 ‒ 67 ‍.

[22] 肖宛凝 , 刘娅 , 刘羽欣‍ . 吉林省食品安全风险监测预警系统构建 [J]‍. 中国公共卫生 , 2014 , 30 2 : 233 ‒ 234 ‍.
Xiao W N , Liu Y , Liu Y X‍ . Construction of a food safety risk monitoring and early warning system in Jilin Province [J]‍. China Public Health , 2014 , 30 2 : 233 ‒ 234 ‍.

[23] 冯冠胜‍ . 农业风险管理中政府介入问题研究——理论、方式与政策选择 [D]‍. 杭州 : 浙江大学 博士学位论文 , 2004 ‍.
Feng G S‍ . Research on government intervention in agricultural risk management [D]‍. Hangzhou : Zhejiang University Doctoral dissertation , 2004 ‍.

[24] 朱启臻‍ . 打好种业翻身仗 确保农业安全 [J]. 乡村振兴 , 2021 3 : 36 ‒ 38 .
Zhu Q Z . Do a good job in the seed industry, ensure agricultural safety [J]. Xiangcun Zhenxing Rural Revitalization , 2021 3 : 36 ‒ 38 .

[25] 经济日报社中国经济趋势研究院 , 中国农业大学国家农业农村发展研究院‍ . 保障农业农村优先发展 [N]. 经济日报 , 2022-01-21 11.
National Institute of Agricultural and Rural Development , China Agricultural University . Guarantee the priority development of agriculture and rural areas [N]. Economic Daily , 2022-01-21 11.

[26] 刘布春 , 刘园 , 郑飞翔 , 等‍ . 区域粮食产量因灾损失评估之东北三省灾情 ‒ 产量模型再检验 [J]. 中国农业气象 , 2022 , 43 6 : 487 ‒ 498 .
Liu B C , Liu Y , Zheng F X , et al . Assessment regional grain yield loss based on re-examination of disasteryield model in three northeastern provinces [J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology , 2022 , 43 6 : 487 ‒ 498 .

[27] 孔祥斌‍ . 耕地“非粮化”问题、成因及对策 [J]. 中国土地 , 2020 11 : 17 ‒ 19 .
Kong X B . Causes and countermeasures of the problem of "non grain" of land [J] . China Land , 2020 11 : 17 ‒ 19 .

[28] 李雨凌 , 马雯秋 , 姜广辉 , 等‍ . 中国粮食主产区耕地撂荒程度及其对粮食产量的影响 [J]. 自然资源学报 , 2021 , 36 6 : 1439 ‒ 1454 .
Li Y L , Ma W Q , Jiang G H , et al . The degree of cultivated land abandonment and its influence on grain yield in main grain producing areas of China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources , 2021 , 36 6 : 1439 ‒ 1454 .

[29] 李升发 , 李秀彬 , 辛良杰 , 等‍ . 中国山区耕地撂荒程度及空间分布——基于全国山区抽样调查结果 [J]. 资源科学 , 2017 , 39 10 : 1801 ‒ 1811 .
Li S F , Li X B , Xin L J , et al . Extent and distribution of cropland abandonment in Chinese mountainous areas [J]. Resources Science , 2017 , 39 10 : 1801 ‒ 1811 .

Related Research