Technology Foresight Research on China’s Medical and Population Health Engineering Science and Technology to 2035

Dianjun Sun, Changhao Sun, Fengmin Zhang, Bin Cong, Jie Qiao, Yanhui Gao, Yong Zhang, Lijun Wu, Yan Jin, Shiguang Zhao, Baozhong Shen, Xu Gao, Xia Li, Ye Tian, Yumei Niu, Lijun Zhao, Dongmei Li, Jianguo Xu, Baofeng Yang

Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1) : 96-102.

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Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1) : 96-102. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.01.014
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Technology Foresight Research on China’s Medical and Population Health Engineering Science and Technology to 2035

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Abstract

Key technology foresight in the fields of medical and population health is very important to China's population health, economy, and social development. Such foresight permits technological development trends in medical and population health to be grasped, thereby meeting major national strategic demands. In this paper, a list of alternative technologies is put forward on the basis of technology foresight, bibliometrics, and patent analysis (both domestic and international). A Delphi investigation of the list was carried out among experts in the fields of medical technology and medical industry all over the country. A total of 10 major key technologies, 10 major common technologies, and 10 major disruptive technologies were put forward, by analyzing the results of the Delphi investigation in combination with the experts’ judgment. The realization time, development level, and limiting factors of these major technologies were also analyzed. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the raising of major projects in the fields of medical and population health.

Keywords

medical health / population health / 2035 / Delphi method / technology foresight

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Dianjun Sun, Changhao Sun, Fengmin Zhang, Bin Cong, Jie Qiao, Yanhui Gao, Yong Zhang, Lijun Wu, Yan Jin, Shiguang Zhao, Baozhong Shen, Xu Gao, Xia Li, Ye Tian, Yumei Niu, Lijun Zhao, Dongmei Li, Jianguo Xu, Baofeng Yang. Technology Foresight Research on China’s Medical and Population Health Engineering Science and Technology to 2035. Strategic Study of CAE, 2017, 19(1): 96‒102 https://doi.org/10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.01.014

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