Analysis of US National Research Council’s Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies

Xiaolin Zhang

doi:10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019

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Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6) : 117-121. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019

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Analysis of US National Research Council’s Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies

Xiaolin Zhang

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Abstract

The National Research Council’s (NRC) report on Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies analyzes the key issues of disruptive technology forecasting and proposes an ideal persistent forecasting system model. On this basis, the paper summarizes the connotation and challenges of disruptive technology forecasting, presents the attributes of the ideal persistent forecasting system, and analyzes the system model and its functions. Finally, the enlightenment of the research on disruptive technology forecasting is proposed, thus to provide reference for relevant research work in China.

Keywords

disruptive technologies / persistent forecasting / ideal forecasting system

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Xiaolin Zhang. Analysis of US National Research Council’s Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies. Strategic Study of CAE, 2018, 20(6): 117‒121 https://doi.org/10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019

References

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Funding

CAE Advisory Project “Development path research of disruptive technologies” (2017-XZ-42)