1 Introduction
To realize China’s two-stage goals—socialist modernization by 2035 and a new type of industrialization, informationization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization by 2050 (“four modernizations”)—China should uphold the development philosophy of innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing, and advance the four modernizations synchronously. In due course, the country faces a series of challenges in ensuring national food security, ecological security, sustainable development, and intensified market competition, among others, in terms of agricultural modernization. These challenges include resource misallocation and differences in technology innovation between urban and rural areas, among others. Therefore, new ideas for future agricultural development in China are required.
Currently, a large variety of research has been conducted to analyze future trend of agricultural development in China; however, most of these studies are limited to trend prediction [1,2], with insufficient macro research and their impact analyses. The research is dominated by future food security issues, with no discussion on the overall situation of agricultural development [3,4]. It only forecasts the supply and demand of main agricultural products in the short term (to 2030) [5,6], without reflecting long-term changes toward 2050. Given this, this study has, based on the past experience in China’s agricultural development as well as opportunities and challenges ahead, pursued to clarify the phased development goals for 2035 and 2050, and carried out forward-looking and strategic research focusing on modernization of cropping and livestock industries, production mode and industrial value chain, resources, environment and sustainable development, and other key directions, in a bid to provide a basic reference for research and macroscopic decision-making in the related field.
2 China's agricultural development: achievements and evolution across regions
2.1 Agricultural development: reforms and achievements
The past four decades have seen rapid growth in China’s agriculture. The country uses 5% of the world’s freshwater resources and 8% of the world’s arable land to provide 95% of the food for 18% of the world’s population. Between 1978 and 2020, the agricultural GDP grew at an average rate of 4.5% per year. While the outputs of rice, wheat, and corn increased annually at average rates of 1.1%, 2.3%, and 3.9%, respectively, the growth rates of cotton (4%), oil (6.1%), sugar (5.2%), and fruit (11.1%) output, as well as vegetable cropping areas (5.1%) were more pronounced, and the outputs of meat and aquatic products grew annually at average rates of 5.7% and 7%, respectively
[7]. Agricultural growth and structural optimization have not only improved food security for both urban and rural residents but also met the demands for food consumption and nutrition improvement. Agricultural development has also contributed to non-agricultural employment growth in rural areas, promoting rural economic transformation and improving farmers’ income [8,9].
Advances in science and technology, institutional innovation, market reform, and public agricultural investment are the four main driving forces of China’s agricultural growth. These forces are selected sequentially to achieve phased development goals, which are also essential for the successful transformation of food systems. The implementation of the household responsibility system marked the start of the 40 year’s reform process in rural areas, which helped improve land and labor productivity. At the middle and later stages of the reform, many new rural institutional innovations have played a crucial role in improving agricultural productivity and increasing farmers’ income
[1], the proportion of its arable land in the world is also decreasing. In pursuit of sustainable agricultural development when facing limited land supply per capita, China should ensure that total food is independent and controllable on the premise of ensuring absolute security of grain rations related to the national economy and people's livelihood [17,18]. The absolute security of grain rations means that the self-sufficiency rates of rice and wheat should meet the goals for 2035 and 2050. Adhering to the red line of arable land and maintaining a moderate strategic reserve of grain rations at the state level is an important guarantee for absolute food security; efforts to deepen “the reserve of grain rations on land and based on technology” and launch “the reserve of grain rations through political measures” (including the system and mechanism, mode of production, and risk control) are also the key to achieving the goal of independent and controllable food supply.
5.1.2 Innovative development of agricultural total factor productivity
We will establish a system for nurturing technological innovation in the new era and a system and mechanism for ensuring the supply of agricultural inputs, raise the total factor productivity of agriculture from the perspective of productivity, and build an agriculture-promoting system and management system suitable for the development pattern in the new era to significantly increase the total factor productivity in terms of production relations. On one hand, we will build more robust systems and mechanisms for technological innovation and ensure the supply of agricultural inputs in the field of agricultural technology and infrastructure, and raise the total factor productivity directly from the perspective of productivity, which is also a concrete reflection of the strategies of “reserve of grain rations on land and based on technology”. Currently, intensifying efforts should be made to speed up the reform of the agricultural technology system to enhance technological innovation capacity while rationally increasing investment in agricultural infrastructure. On the other hand, we will build sound innovative systems and mechanisms for agricultural productivity improvements, and raise the total factor productivity of agriculture through reforming production relations, ways of production, agricultural production structures, integration of industrial chains and industries, and regional production layouts, among others.
5.1.3 Regional agricultural sustainable development based on comparative advantage and resource carrying capacity
We will strengthen the division of agricultural production across regions and confine the main food producting regions based on the carrying capacity of resources and environments and comparative advantages. Sustainable development patterns suitable for local conditions will be explored for Northeast China (e.g., large-scale modern agriculture), the Huang–Huai–Hai region (e.g., ecological, water-saving, and high-value agriculture), the Huang–Huai–Hai region in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (e.g., ecological high-value agriculture with multiple functions), the Huang–Huai–Hai region in southeastern coastal areas (e.g., ecologically efficient and export-oriented high-value agriculture), the northwest Huang–Huai–Hai region (e.g., water-saving and efficient modern agriculture), the southwest Huang–Huai–Hai region (e.g., ecological and multi-functional characteristic agriculture), and southern hilly and mountain areas (e.g., the combination of planting and breeding and ley-farming).
5.1.4 Actively participating into international cooperation to improve national food supply capacity
We will alleviate the constraints of soil and water and the pressure of resources and the environment for China's agricultural production by active use of domestic and internation resources and markets; give full play to the comparative advantage of agricultural products, enhance the international competitiveness of China's high-value agricultural products; take accurate measures to tackle changes in the international situation, contribute to the management system of trade in bulk agricultural products and build systems and mechanisms for responding to and making pre-plans for international emergencies; support Africa and developing countries in South America in enhancing agricultural production capacity, and meet China's import demands in addition to enhancing agricultural supply capacity worldwide.
5.1.5 Modern agricultural innovation led by system, policy, and investment innovations
China's agricultural development over the past four decades demonstrates that institutional innovation, policy reform (such as technological innovation and market reform), and public input are the main forces driving agricultural growth, which is also the key to the success of agricultural development and reform. To realize the goal of agricultural development for 2050, we will highlight the development concept of reform and innovation; promote institutional improvements in land, water resources, labor, capital, and business organizations in the new era; put in place a modern agricultural policy support system covering agricultural technology, agricultural finance, market reform, and agricultural trade; and foster a complementary and symbiotic agricultural investment model between government public investment (such as farmland irrigation and water conservancy, rural roads, information and communication infrastructure, market infrastructure, and public goods) and social investment (such as peasant household investment and market-oriented investment of agricultural enterprises).
5.2 Key projects for agricultural development
A key task in the near future is to promote the transformational development of green, efficient, and multi-functional high-value agriculture, as well as the leapfrog development of smart and ecological modern agriculture. From multiple aspects such as variety, quality, safety, characteristics, efficiency and multi functions such as ecology, culture, and leisure, we will deepen the supply-side structural reform of agriculture and create a good production and market environment for the development of high-value agriculture through institutional and technological innovation and policy support in the fields of production and circulation. We will develop modern, intelligent, and ecological agriculture supported by modern biotechnology, digital technology, and equipment technology, with ecology as the main line and intelligence as the means to lay a solid foundation for leapfrog development of agriculture. Further, we will expand the application of information technologies such as the Internet of Things and cloud computing, boost the development of modern and intelligent agriculture, explore a development model, technical support, and policy guarantee system of ecological agriculture suitable for different regions, industries, and scales, and advance the ecological process of modern agriculture.
While centering on strategic priorities for agricultural development and key links in urgent need, we will implement the following key projects across the board in the near future: (1) Modern biological breeding and seed industry innovation projects to enhance the contribution of germplasm resources to agricultural production and the production capacity of the “reserve of grain rations based on technology”; (2) Project of all-round farmland fertility improvement to increase the production potential for the “reserve of grain rations on land”; (3) farmland irrigation efficiency improvement project to promote the sustainable use of water resources; (4) agricultural ecological environment protection projects to comprehensively improve the quality of agricultural development and the capacity for sustainable development; and (5) technological innovation and personnel training projects to enhance the capacity for innovation in agricultural technology. Next, the following key projects will be implemented across the board: (1) Recycling agriculture projects of integrated planting and breeding; (2) standardized development project of modern agriculture; and (3) modern and intelligent agriculture projects.
6 Countermeasures and policy recommendations
6.1 Building a sound institutional guarantee system for prioritizing agricultural development
To ensure that agricultural modernization will be partially realized by 2035 and fully by 2050, we should advance the progress of agricultural modernization and intensify the implementation of agricultural development strategies from 2020 to 2035. It is suggested that a system and mechanism for prioritizing agricultural development be established in the near future to provide key guarantees for completely eliminating the dual structure between urban and rural areas and prioritizing agricultural development.
6.2 Fostering innovation in rural land transferring system and in agricultural production patterns
By 2025, we will implement the policy of extending the second round of land contracts for another 30 years upon maturity and build a sound system of “separating three rights of contracted rural land”; boost the development of farmland transfer markets; promote orderly annexation of farmland and expand agricultural land operations; foster new types of agribusiness entities full of market vitality such as family farms, cooperatives, agricultural enterprises, and agribusiness consortiums. We will also support the development of social service organizations such as the extension and integration of agricultural, industrial chains and high-quality agricultural mechanization throughout the process, and transform the mode of agricultural production to the development of green, ecological, and multi-functional high-value agriculture. After 2025, we will embrace an all-round improvement stage in all aspects.
6.3 Reforming the agricultural technology and innovation system
Before 2025, a new round of agricultural technology system reforms will be launched to strengthen the positioning of basic applied research in the public agricultural sector, build an innovation system for the agricultural technology at a faster pace with enterprises as the main body, and intensify efforts to reform the promotion system for the agricultural technology. After 2025, the innovation system for the agricultural technology will be perfected and innovation capacity will be enhanced in an all-round manner. On one hand, we will encourage enterprises to play a primary role in technological application and industrialization research and define the function of R&D spending in the public sector; on the other hand, we will speed up the establishment of a collaborative and efficient agricultural technology innovation system and create a favorable investment and market environment for agricultural R&D.
6.4 Implementing education and training programs for improving rural human capital accumulation
Before 2025, we will set a national agricultural technology innovation talent fund for educating and training talent and increase the number of leading talents in various fields related to agriculture, as well as the size of world-class technological innovation teams, issue special laws and regulations related to farmer education and training, establish a multi-channel mechanism for joint investment from the government, society, and farmers, and develop a multi-layered education and training system for farmers. After 2025, we will optimize and adjust the relevant systems and mechanisms in due time, continue to enhance our capacity to guarantee intellectual resources for agricultural technology innovation, and give full play to the fundamental role of the education and training system for farmers.
6.5 Improving agricultural productivity, developing high-value agriculture, and fueling sustainable development
Before 2025, China will maintain inputs in agricultural R&D, technology adoption, high-standard farmland, and rural infrastructure construction to meet actual needs; advance reforms in the minimum purchase price model for rice and wheat; accelerate the destocking of rice and wheat and branding agricultural products; and make the supply-side structural reform in agriculture to improve its efficiency in all aspects. Further, it will remediate the agricultural environment and control non-point source pollution. We will pursue steady progress in crop rotation and fallow, as well as manage and replace the arable land contaminated by heavy metals; build a robust ecological compensation mechanism; and initiate reforms in agricultural water rights and prices. After 2025, we will continue to provide necessary policy support in a way that drives a comprehensive shift to a model of agricultural productivity improvement, as well as high-quality and sustainable development.
6.6 Engaging in global value-chain to ensure food security and building global trade governance systems
Before 2025, we will set special funds to improve agricultural productivity in developing countries in Africa, systematically enhance the ability to address international market fluctuations through China's agricultural trade, step up participation in and promotion of multilateral and bilateral trade agreements, and construct a management system for international trade in staple products, such as soybean and corn. After 2025, we will maintain and intensify input management and achieve the fundamental goal of independent and controllable grain supply in China while providing Chinese solutions to world agricultural development and improving the global agricultural trade governance system.
Acknowledgment
This publication is based on the findings of the reseach project entitled “Strategic Research on Chinese Agricultural Development toward 2050” by the Project Comprehensive Research Team. The research team include Liu Xu, Huang Jikun, Sheng Yu, Wang Jinxia, Liu Chengfang, Wang Xiaobing, Hou Lingling, Xie Wei (Peking University), Qiu Huanguang (Renmin University of China), Xu Zhigang (Nanjing Agricultural University), Qing Ping (Huazhong Agricultural University), Luo Xiaofeng (Huazhong Agricultural University), Wang Mingli, You Fei, Zheng Haixia, Wang Xiufen (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences), Li Jianqin (Zhejiang University), Zhang Wenbing (Ocean University of China), Zang Ying (South China Agricultural University), Luo Biliang (South China Agricultural University), and Li Jin (Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences).
Compliance with ethics guidelines
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest or financial conflicts to disclose.
Chinese Academy of Engineering project “Research on China’s Agricultural Development Strategy 2050” (2018-ZD-07)()
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