PDF(598 KB)
Agricultural Resource Balance and International Import Potential of China by 2050
Haixia Zheng, Fei You, Qiyou Luo, Huajun Tang
Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1) : 20-28.
PDF(598 KB)
PDF(598 KB)
Agricultural Resource Balance and International Import Potential of China by 2050
The balance of supply and demand for agricultural resources in China is becoming increasingly tight due to the multiple effects of high-quality agricultural production, transformation and upgrading of food consumption structure, and climate change. Therefore, it is crucial for China to integrate the international and domestic resources and markets to ensure food security in the medium and long term. Based on a comparative analysis of agricultural resources in China and abroad, we investigate food consumption demand, consumption structure, and supply structure in China by 2035 and 2050. The agricultural resource utilization targets for China by 2035 and 2050 are proposed based on an analysis of the agricultural resource supply-demand gap as well as import potentials and sources of virtual water and virtual arable land. We find that the import of virtual arable land by China will reach a peak around 2048, with nearly 6.147×107 hm2. Virtual water imports will reach a peak around 2045. If estimated by blue water, virtual water imports will be 1.136×108 m3, accounting for 30% of the total agricultural water consumption in 2017. The increase in the import potentials of China’s arable land will mainly come from South America and Africa.
agricultural resource balance / food consumption structure / virtual water / virtual arable land / import potential
| [1] |
Dalin C, Hanasaki N, Qiu H G, et al. Water resources transfers through Chinese interprovincial and foreign food trade [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014, 111(27): 9774–9779.
|
| [2] |
杜鹰. 中国的粮食安全战略(下) [J]. 农村工作通讯, 2020 (22): 17–21. Du Y. China’s food security strategy (Part 2) [J]. Rural Work Newsletter, 2020 (22): 17–21.
|
| [3] |
陈锡文. 高度重视我国食物供给风险问题 [N]. 农民日报, 2021- 10-30(02). Chen X W. Pay attention to the issue of food supply risks in China [N]. Farmers’ Daily, 2021-10-30(02).
|
| [4] |
程国强. 推进粮食产业高质量发展的思考 [J]. 中国粮食经济, 2019 (9): 54–59. Cheng G Q. Thoughts on promoting high-quality development of grain industry [J]. China Grain Economy, 2019 (9): 54–59.
|
| [5] |
Dalin C, Qiu H G, Hanasaki N, et al. Balancing water resource conservation and food security in China [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015, 112(15): 4588–4593.
|
| [6] |
联合国教科文组织. 联合国世界水发展报告 [M]. 中国水资源 战略研究会(全球水伙伴中国委员会)译. 北京: 中国水利水电出 版社, 2018. UNESCO. United Nations world water development report [M]. Translated by China Water Resources Strategy Research Association (Global Water Partnership China Committee). Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2018.
|
| [7] |
Burek P, Langan S, Cosgrove W, et al. The water futures and solutions initiative of IIASA [C]. Isfahan: The 7th International Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk Management Disasters and Development, 2016.
|
| [8] |
Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics, United Stations. World population prospects 2019 [EB/OL]. (2019- 12-31)[2021-11-15]. https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/ Standard/Population/.
|
| [9] |
Cai J B, Liu Y, Lei T W, et al. Estimating reference evapotranspiration with the FAO Penman–Monteith equation using daily weather forecast messages [J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007, 145(1–2): 22–35.
|
| [10] |
孙才志, 张蕾. 中国农产品虚拟水–耕地资源区域时空差异演变 [J]. 资源科学, 2009, 31(1): 84–93. Sun C Z, Zhang L. Changes in spatial and temporal differences of agricultural product virtual water versus cultivated land in China [J]. Resources Science, 2009, 31(1): 84–93.
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
AI Summary
