
Re-electrification in China Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal
Yinbiao Shu, Dian Xie, Liang Zhao, Yajing Gao, Yong Zhao, Chaoyang Zhou
Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3) : 195-204.
Re-electrification in China Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal
As carbon peak and carbon neutrality have been incorporated into the overall layout of China’s ecological civilization construction, electric power will play an increasingly important role in leading green development. Implementing re-electrification to realize clean substitution at the energy production side and electric energy substitution at the energy consumption side is significant for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality on schedule. In this article, we analyze the concept of re-electrification and propose to help China achieve low-carbon development with re-electrification considering the basic national conditions and resource endowment of the country. We analyze the evolution trend of energy and power in China under different scenarios using a research framework of terminal energy demand—energy conversion system—primary energy structure while considering the factors of economy, technology, policy, and environment. The development prospect of re-electrification is also proposed. The research results show that re-electrification will significantly promote carbon neutrality. In 2060, the proportions of non-fossil energy consumption, clean energy power generation, and terminal power consumption will reach 80%, 90%, and 70%, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that China should (1) coordinate the carbon budget and emission reduction paths of various industries, (2) accelerate the adjustment of economic and industrial structures, (3) promote scientific and technological innovation in key fields, and (4) improve the policy systemfor power and carbon markets.
re-electrification / carbon neutrality / energy transition / electric energy substitution
[1] |
Mahone A, Subin Z, Mantegna G, et al. Achieving carbon neutrality in California [R]. New York: Energy and Environmental Economics, 2020.
|
[2] |
Natural Capital Partners. The carbon neutral protocol [R]. Europe: Natural Capital Partners, 2020.
|
[3] |
Salvia M, Reckien D, Pietrapertosa F, et al. Will climate mitigation ambitions lead to carbon neutrality? An analysis of the local-level plans of 327 cities in the EU [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020, 135: 110253.
|
[4] |
习近平 . 在第七十五届联合国大会一般性辩论上的讲话 [EBOL]. 2020-09-22 [ 2021-09-30 ]. http:www.xinhuanet.comworld2020-0922c_1126527652.htm .
|
[5] |
邹才能 , 何东博 , 贾成业 , 等 . 世界能源转型内涵、路径及其对碳中和的意义 [J]. 石油学报 , 2021 , 42 2 : 233 ‒ 247 .
|
[6] |
王伟 , 黄珂 . 电能替代战略: 机遇、挑战与政策选择 [J]. 华北电力大学学报社会科学版 , 2014 4 : 1 ‒ 5 .
|
[7] |
孙毅 , 许鹏 , 单葆国 , 等 . 售电侧改革背景下"互联网+"电能替代发展路线 [J]. 电网技术 , 2016 , 40 12 : 3648 ‒ 3654 .
|
[8] |
孙毅 , 周爽 , 单葆国 , 等 . 多情景下的电能替代潜力分析 [J]. 电网技术 , 2017 , 41 1 : 118 ‒ 123 .
|
[9] |
Oudes D, Stremke S. Spatial transition analysis: Spatially explicit and evidence-based targets for sustainable energy transition at the local and regional scale [J]. Landscape & Urban Planning, 2018, 169(169) : 1‒11.
|
[10] |
刘平阔 , 王志伟 . 中国"能源转型"是否合理?——能源替代—互补关系的实证研究 [J]. 中国软科学 , 2019 8 : 14 ‒ 30 .
|
[11] |
Apergis N, Salim R. Renewable energy consumption and unemployment: Evidence from a sample of 80 countries and nonlinear estimates [J]. Applied economics, 2015, 47 (52): 1‒20.
|
[12] |
贾璐宇 , 王艳华 , 王克 , 等 . 大气污染防治措施二氧化碳协同减排效果评估 [J]. 环境保护科学 , 2020 , 46 6 : 19 ‒ 26 .
|
[13] |
史丹 , 王蕾 . 能源革命及其对经济发展的作用 [J]. 产业经济研究 , 2015 1 : 1 ‒ 8 .
|
[14] |
国家发展和改革委员会 , 科学技术部 , 工业和信息化部 , 等 . 关于扩大战略性新兴产业投资培育壮大新增长点增长极的指导意见 [EBOL]. 2020-09-08 [ 2021-09-30 ]. https:www.ndrc.gov.cnxxgkzcfbtz202009t20200925_1239582_ext.html .
|
[15] |
国务院办公厅 . 国务院办公厅关于印发新能源汽车产业发展规划 2021 — 2035 年的通知 [EBOL]. 2020-10-20 [ 2021-09-30 ]. http:www.gov.cnzhengcecontent2020-1102content_5556716.htm .
|
[16] |
王冠 . 发电侧与用电侧参与电能替代的效益分析与优化研究 [D]. 北京 : 华北电力大学博士学位论文 , 2017 .
|
[17] |
何悦 . 中国能源供需预测模型及电能替代对策研究 [D]. 北京 : 北京交通大学硕士学位论文 , 2018 .
|
[18] |
李春元 . 电能替代在终端能源消费市场的竞争力研究 [D]. 兰州 : 兰州理工大学硕士学位论文 , 2016 .
|
[19] |
符冠云 . 氢能在我国能源转型中的地位和作用 [J]. 中国煤炭 , 2019 , 45 10 : 15 ‒ 21 .
|
[20] |
周孝信 , 陈树勇 , 鲁宗相 , 等 . 能源转型中我国新一代电力系统的技术特征 [J]. 中国电机工程学报 , 2018 , 38 7 : 1893 ‒ 1904 .
|
[21] |
秦炎 . 欧洲碳市场推动电力减排的作用机制分析 [J]. 全球能源互联网 , 2021 , 4 1 : 37 ‒ 45 .
|
[22] |
陈国平 , 梁志峰 , 董昱 . 基于能源转型的中国特色电力市场建设的分析与思考 [J]. 中国电机工程学报 , 2020 , 40 2 : 369 ‒ 378 .
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |