Research on the effectiveness of coal stable supply and carbon reduction can provide robust decision-making support for the development planning of the coal sector. This study examines the potential, capacity, and resilience of coal to maintain its primary energy status, focusing on the secure supply and carbon reduction perspectives. A system dynamics model is constructed to predict the effectiveness of coal stable supply, and the carbon reduction effectiveness within the coal sector until 2060 is evaluated. The results indicate that the recoverable reserves and resource distribution of coal in China are basic guarantee for ensuring energy security. Based on the coal supply and consumption relationship in the past 20 years, it can be concluded that coal supply in China is stable and secure. In the future, the secure supply effectiveness of coal will gradually achieve a dynamic flexible balance with fluctuations. Transitioning from traditional coal-dominated energy to coal-based energy is crucial for establishing a new energy system. China's coal industry has shown significant potential for carbon emission reduction in processing and utilization, and will demonstrate strong carbon-reduction effectiveness through the development and application of technologies such as underground gasification of coal and development and utilization of oil-rich coal. By 2060, the overall carbon reduction effectiveness will reach approximately 1 × 10⁹ t.