Building a Zero-Carbon Thermal System

Yi Jiang , Lin Fu , Jianjun Xia , Xiaoyun Xie , Yanting Wu , Shan Hu

Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5) : 1 -18.

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Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5) : 1 -18. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2025.08.025
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Building a Zero-Carbon Thermal System

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Abstract

The development of a new zero-carbon thermal system is critical for achieving China’s energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Heat pumps are a key enabling technology in this process, and their successful deployment hinges on two factors: identifying reliable low-temperature heat sources and ensuring that their electricity consumption is supplied by zero-carbon or low-carbon power. Based on China’s specific heating demands and resource endowments, this study proposes a construction pathway for zero-carbon thermal systems. For low-intensity heating demands—such as space heating in southern regions and rural buildings—air-source, ground-source, and surface water-source heat pumps should be employed to efficiently provide heat using electricity. For high-intensity heating demands—such as space heating in northern regions, low-pressure steam and hot water for industry—low-grade waste heat from human activities, including residual heat from nuclear and thermal power plants, industrial processes, and data centers, can be harvested as the low-temperature heat source and upgraded via heat pumps to meet supply needs. Building on this framework, the study presents an integrated roadmap for realizing zero-carbon thermal supply in China. It focuses on the technological architecture required to establish large-scale waste heat sharing networks, and analyses how coordinated operation between heating and power systems can contribute to the development of a new-type power system. Finally, it provides a comprehensive assessment of the investment requirements, economic returns, and carbon reduction potential of zero-carbon thermal infrastructure. This study recommends that the construction of zero-carbon thermal systems be prioritized and accelerated. Efforts should be advanced along two parallel pathways: (1) decentralized heat pumps deployed and retrofitted by end users, and (2) centralized waste heat sharing networks implemented through national-level planning. These should be supported by appropriate enabling policies and safeguards to fully unlock the economic and social benefits of zero-carbon thermal systems, thereby accelerating the low-carbon transformation of the energy system and the realization of carbon neutrality goals.

Keywords

zero-carbon thermal system / waste-heat sharing system / heat pump / power-heat coordination / carbon neutrality

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Yi Jiang, Lin Fu, Jianjun Xia, Xiaoyun Xie, Yanting Wu, Shan Hu. Building a Zero-Carbon Thermal System. Strategic Study of CAE, 2025, 27(5): 1-18 DOI:10.15302/J-SSCAE-2025.08.025

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Funding

Funding project: National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3802400)

Chinese Academy of Engineering project "Strategic Research on Development Pathways for Urban-Rural Energy Supply Systems"(2023-XBZD-07)

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