The “four water-based controls” principle (i.e., defining city, land, population, and industry based on water) is a cornerstone of water resource management in China in the new era. To advance its application from theory to practice, a comprehensive, closed-loop technical framework must be established to resolve the critical conflict between water scarcity and socioeconomic development alongside ecological conservation. This study analyzes the core essence of the “four water-based controls” principle, and establishes a “smart monitoring ‒ risk assessment ‒ early warning regulation” technical framework. It also designs a dual-evaluation indicator system combining binding and anticipatory metrics, and constructs a smart monitoring system featuring space ‒ air ‒ ground ‒ water ‒ engineering integration and a three-dimensional “point ‒ area” approach. The dual-evaluation approach is employed to conduct risk assessment and early warning diagnosis. The study further proposes a dual-state response mechanism encompassing both routine and emergency scenarios. This response mechanism centers on water conservation for efficiency enhancement, regulatory control for institutional development, and resource expansion for supply assurance, and is integrated into the dynamic early-warning regulation pathway of the “four water-based controls” framework. An empirical study conducted in Ordos, a water-scarce city, identifies that expected indicators in risk areas require particular attention to the aspects of determining the city’s land use and production based on water availability. Based on this, targeted countermeasures are proposed. This study provides a theoretical framework and practical reference for implementing the “four water-based controls” principle and enhancing water conservation and intensive utilization.