Mathematical and Predictive Models of SARS Epidemic Disease and Mechanism of Prevention and Control

Liu Yunzhong、 Xuan Huiyu、 Lin Guoxi

Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2004, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (9) : 60-65.

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PDF(3674 KB)
Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2004, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (9) : 60-65.
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Mathematical and Predictive Models of SARS Epidemic Disease and Mechanism of Prevention and Control

  • Liu Yunzhong、 Xuan Huiyu、 Lin Guoxi

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Abstract

First, based on the law of disease propagation and conservation of population statistics, this paper sets up mathematical models of four kinds of person for SARS, applies mathematical method to analyze the model, and it gets the physiology senses of the mathematical model and mechanism of prevention and control respectively. Second, it sets up predictive models of SARS epidemic disease using BP artificial neural network. According to the data of SARS in Beijing, it predicts and analyzes the model. The experimental results show that the method is simpler, and more effective with high prediction precision。

Keywords

SARS / stability / trail / threshold theory / artificial neural network

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Liu Yunzhong,Xuan Huiyu,Lin Guoxi. Mathematical and Predictive Models of SARS Epidemic Disease and Mechanism of Prevention and Control. Strategic Study of CAE, 2004, 6(9): 60‒65
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