The Lesson From Hurricane Katrina 2005——Risk Analysis for Coastal, Offshore, and Hydraulic Engineering

Liu Defu、Pang Liang、Xie Botao、Shi Hongda、Lu Yijun

Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2007, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (10) : 24-29.

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PDF(417 KB)
Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2007, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (10) : 24-29.

The Lesson From Hurricane Katrina 2005——Risk Analysis for Coastal, Offshore, and Hydraulic Engineering

  • Liu Defu、Pang Liang、Xie Botao、Shi Hongda、Lu Yijun

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Abstract

Comparison among predicted hurricane characteristics with the Poisson-Weibull compound extreme value distribution proposed by the authors in 1982,  Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution in 2004 and hurricane disaster prevention design criteria for New Orleans (proposed by NOAA) shows that the compound extreme value distribution is a more reasonable model for typhoon or hurricane statistical prediction.  Based on the lesson from Hurricane Katrina,  this paper involved the uncertainty analysis and multivariate joint probability theory to the risk assessment for coastal,  offshore and hydraulic engineering.

Keywords

Hurricane Katrina / compound extreme value distribution / multivariate compound extreme value distribution / uncertainty analysis / coastal / offshore / hydraulic and disaster prevention engineering / risk analysis

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Liu Defu,Pang Liang,Xie Botao,Shi Hongda,Lu Yijun. The Lesson From Hurricane Katrina 2005——Risk Analysis for Coastal, Offshore, and Hydraulic Engineering. Strategic Study of CAE, 2007, 9(10): 24‒29
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