
Post-Impact Evaluation of SARS in 2003 on Transportation in China———Loss Estimation of28Provinces in China Based on Background-Trend-Line
Sun Gennian、Ma Lijun
Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2007, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (6) : 32-37.
Post-Impact Evaluation of SARS in 2003 on Transportation in China———Loss Estimation of28Provinces in China Based on Background-Trend-Line
Sun Gennian、Ma Lijun
The SARS in 2003 is a public health crisis in China. The passenger transport witnesses serious landslide and suffers a heavy loss. In this article, the loss of passenger transport and its regional difference impacted by SARS are analyzed and estimated. The loss of passenger transport is nearly 1. 007 billion person- times in 2003 impacted by SARS crisis, in which the highway transportation loss is 888 million, the railway loss is 105 million, the aviation is 16. 12 million and water carriage is 19. 43 million. As a short breaking event, it starts from March in 2003 for the crisis formation, breaks out in whole from May to June, and enters the decay and comeback from July to August, and has a compensating from November to December after the crisis. Due to the difference in transport location and epidemic situation, the loss of passenger transport impacted by SARS in 28 provinces in China can be classified into 4 types. Guangdong, Sichuan and Hebei suffer the most and the loss is over 100 million person-times. The relativity analysis is carried out based on the loss of transportation, cardinal number in 2003 and the number of infect person of SARS, and a new spatial forecast model is put forward for space forecast in transport crisis. The model shows that the marginal coefficient of transportation cardinal number is 0. 788 46, the marginal coefficient of SARS patients is 0. 075 868.
SARS crisis / background trend line / loss of transportation / terrain distribution / spatial model
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