
Earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake
Men Kepei
Strategic Study of CAE ›› 2009, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6) : 82-88.
Earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake
Men Kepei
Since 1700, M≥7strong earthquakes have had an obvious commensurability and orderliness in the north block of Tibet Plateau. The main orderly values are 53~54 a, 26~27 a, 11~12 a and 3~4 a. According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo and self-organization network technology, we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics, and conceive strong earthquake with magnitude 7 informational network structure. Based on this, the 2008 Wenchuan M 8.0 great earthquake was predicted and M≥7 strong earthquakes will happen around 2012, 2016 and 2027 in this area. Meanwhile, the cause of formation about Wenchuan Earthquake has been discussed primarily. The results show that strong earthquake and strong earthquake chain can be predicted. This method has a unique effect on mid-and-long term prediction for strong earthquake.
the north block of Tibet Plateau / informational orderly network structure / the great Wenchuan Earthquake / strong earthquake prediction
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