Journal Home Online First Current Issue Archive For Authors Journal Information 中文版

Strategic Study of CAE >> 2006, Volume 8, Issue 3

Research on Forecasting Model of Seismic Disaster Risk Based on GA-ANN

1. School of Management , Tianjin University , Tianjin 300072 , China

2. Hebei Engineering College , Handan , Hebei 056038 , China

Received: 2005-01-05 Revised: 2005-03-03 Available online: 2006-03-20

Next Previous

Abstract

This paper discerns and analyzes some main factors influencing seismic disasters risk at first, and then, the forecasting model of seismic risk based on the genetic algorithm and artificial neural networks is proposed. The case shows that the model is practical and effective. A kind of forecasting method of seismic disaster risk is presented to decision making departments.

Figures

图1

图2

References

[ 1 ] 聂高众, 高建国, 马宗晋, 等.中国未来10~15年地震灾害的风险评估[J].自然灾害学报, 2002, 11 (1) :68~69 link1

[ 2 ] 张业成.中国自然灾害综合风险预测与分区减灾对策[J].地质灾害与环境保护, 1998, 9 (1) :1~3 link1

[ 3 ] 陈棋福, 陈凌, 等.全球地震灾害预测[J].科学通报, 1999, 44 (1) :21~23 link1

[ 4 ] 郭章林, 刘明广, 李高扬.基于群决策的城市防震减灾能力二级模糊评判[J].建筑技术开发, 2004, 31 (2) :62~63

[ 5 ] 杨行峻, 郑君里.人工神经网络与盲信号处理[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2003 link1

[ 6 ] 苑希民, 李鸿雁, 刘树坤, 等.神经网络和遗传算法在水利领域的应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2002

[ 7 ] 李娟, 陈棋福.中亚地区地震损失评估[J].内陆地震, 2000, 14 (1) :1~8 link1

[ 8 ] 陈棋福, 陈凌.利用国内生产总值和人口数据进行地震灾害损失预测评估[J].地震学报, 1997, 19 (6) :641~649 link1

[ 9 ] 张晓东, 朱丽霞.地震灾害经济损失理论估计及初步讨论[J].西北地震学报, 1998, 20 (2) :59~61 link1

[10] 郭恩栋, 冯启民, 王东升, 等.生命线工程震害损失快速评估系统[J].世界地震工程, 2000, 16 (3) :17~18 link1

Related Research